The Grumpy Munchkins receive:
2nd round pick
Anal Hersheiser receives:
Michael Morse, a 11th round pick
Pretty cut and dry here. First, Morse – He’s good. Is he a keeper? He’s had 290 abs as of Wednesday. Let’s say a full a season is double that – 84r/34hr/104rbi/4stl/.364obp – there’s certainly been worse keepers. This year’s second round brought forth guys like Gio, Granderson, Marcum, Lind, Sandoval, Andrus – some high quality shit, but Morse certainly fits that value profile, especially with OF eligibility. It’s a tough pick to give up, but if he proves to be a keeper than it’s more than worthwhile for Anal. Certainly, if he assists in a playoff run, it’s worth it. He’s a nice upgrade to the Ludwick/SSmith types that often filled the UTIL/OF slot. The question is whether Morse keeps this up, as he has never been a full time player before and had a pretty crappy first month or so. Don’t forget, this guy was on the waiver wire not that long ago.
For Casten, let look at his pick stockpile – eight picks in the first two rounds, draft done by the 12th (though, I have no doubt he’ll trade off that 12th rounder, in which case he’ll be done by the 10th). For theoretical purposes, let’s take a look at how the corresponding picks in the first three rounds for the 2011 draft: Aramis Ramirez, Brian Wilson, Wandy Rodriguez, Roy Oswalt, Pablo Sandoval, Joakim Soria, Nick Markakis, and Geovany Soto. To go along with Reyes, Heyward, Pujols, MCabrera, and McCutchen. And, oh, by the way, Casten is still in the playoff hunt and is 27-10-3 in the past four weeks. He’s worked the system nicely so far, though you got to expect some sort of decline in the rankings from his pitching staff in the next few weeks. You have to wonder what sort of run this team would’ve had in it had Casten not started selling off the parts for picks. It’s a tough call.
Anyhow, value wise, this is a pretty fair trade, though I could certainly see Casten’s return proving to be more valuable in the long run.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Trade Review - Moose and Urban
Moose is Loose receive:
BJ Upton, Angel Pagan, Jeff Francoeur, Alfonso Soriano, 3rd round pick
Urban Achievers receive:
Shin-Soo Choo, Justin Morneau, Alex Presley, Eric Thames, 1st round pick
This is one of those trades that should make everyone think twice about lamenting the “dump trades” that occur before the trade deadline. Really, they’re a great thing. They create opportunities for the downtrodden to look forward to next year, while allowing the competitors a chance to enhance their team in exchange for theoretical long-term losses. Without them, we’d see much less trades. And nothing is more exciting and potentially more impactful than a good trade. It hurts for teams that think they could’ve offered better, but hopefully inspires them to be proactive in the future. Allowing the exchange of draft picks has expanded every team’s ability to upgrade their team. While I was initially against it, I’m warming up to it as the season goes on. Sure, some trades have resulted in some imbalanced exchanges of 2012 picks, but it has further expanded the freedom each owner has to manage their team. On a side note, not requiring people to start two RP was also a good move and has also provided the opportunity for owners to be strategic—perhaps to their own detriment, but that’s the beauty of it all. If you wanted to, trading your first five picks next year could address many of the holes on your team, but do you sacrifice next year’s roster for the chance at glory next year? Are you that confident in your assessment of players that you think your 2012 team would be just fine regardless? All questions you have to consider and could send you in a wide range of directions and, ultimately, it separates the men from the boys.
I digress. For Moose, I applaud the reigning champ for his sticktoitiveness and willingness to go for it this year despite the serious challenges his roster has faced. No one has had more bad luck with top players. Choo is much better than he has performed and Morneau is a perennial top fantasy 1B. While Choo may return to form this year, he’s injured and Brian isn’t in a position to sit back and wait for him. Meanwhile, it’s pretty clear Morneau won’t be the masher of old this year. You team that with Greinke’s stupid basketball injury and subsequent underperformance and Uggla’s issues with his new surroundings, it’s been a shit show from the beginning. Now, his bullpen, which was once a strength, lost K-Rod to trade and Putz to injury. Ouch. Safe to say a repeat will be tough, but if he can make it to the playoffs, he still has a chance. Starting guys like Presley and Thames, you have no chance. What I like about the trade from Brian’s end is that he took a hit on the keeper end, but BJ Upton is more than solid as a keeper. And, sure, it hurts to lose a first rounder, but he’s only downgrading a couple rounds. And one could argue, teams found more success in the 3rd round this year than the 1st. Meanwhile, Pagan has the potential for a big second half and Frenchy and Soriano are significant upgrades to the Presley/Pierre/Thames/Melky/Hunter combo. Not to mention, Brian acquired 55 steals—a category that has been a problem for him this year. More challenges await, but he addressed his biggest area of need.
On Urban’s end, Morneau is expected to recover and Choo almost certainly will return to some semblance of the form that made him one of the top all around contributors in the league last year. Upton is a tough loss, but he’s also tough to rely on and can be very streaky. BJ probably has the most high end potential, but I think it is smart for Dan to build up a solid core in preparation for next year. There’s still work to be done, but CC, CYoung, Morneau and Choo are a nice start and the upgrade to a first rounder was a good move, though I think it probably could’ve been a more substantial upgrade. I’m a little surprised we haven’t seen more action on this front from Urban, especially considering Casten offered me a handjob for my 11th rounder. But Dan still got pieces to sell off with KJohnson, Jeter, Hafner, Napoli, CLee, Liriano, Vargas, Gallardo, FGarcia, and Tomlin all falling in the above-waiver-wire-material-and-useful-but-not-quite-keeper category.
All in all, again, nice work guys. Trade works for all parties.
BJ Upton, Angel Pagan, Jeff Francoeur, Alfonso Soriano, 3rd round pick
Urban Achievers receive:
Shin-Soo Choo, Justin Morneau, Alex Presley, Eric Thames, 1st round pick
This is one of those trades that should make everyone think twice about lamenting the “dump trades” that occur before the trade deadline. Really, they’re a great thing. They create opportunities for the downtrodden to look forward to next year, while allowing the competitors a chance to enhance their team in exchange for theoretical long-term losses. Without them, we’d see much less trades. And nothing is more exciting and potentially more impactful than a good trade. It hurts for teams that think they could’ve offered better, but hopefully inspires them to be proactive in the future. Allowing the exchange of draft picks has expanded every team’s ability to upgrade their team. While I was initially against it, I’m warming up to it as the season goes on. Sure, some trades have resulted in some imbalanced exchanges of 2012 picks, but it has further expanded the freedom each owner has to manage their team. On a side note, not requiring people to start two RP was also a good move and has also provided the opportunity for owners to be strategic—perhaps to their own detriment, but that’s the beauty of it all. If you wanted to, trading your first five picks next year could address many of the holes on your team, but do you sacrifice next year’s roster for the chance at glory next year? Are you that confident in your assessment of players that you think your 2012 team would be just fine regardless? All questions you have to consider and could send you in a wide range of directions and, ultimately, it separates the men from the boys.
I digress. For Moose, I applaud the reigning champ for his sticktoitiveness and willingness to go for it this year despite the serious challenges his roster has faced. No one has had more bad luck with top players. Choo is much better than he has performed and Morneau is a perennial top fantasy 1B. While Choo may return to form this year, he’s injured and Brian isn’t in a position to sit back and wait for him. Meanwhile, it’s pretty clear Morneau won’t be the masher of old this year. You team that with Greinke’s stupid basketball injury and subsequent underperformance and Uggla’s issues with his new surroundings, it’s been a shit show from the beginning. Now, his bullpen, which was once a strength, lost K-Rod to trade and Putz to injury. Ouch. Safe to say a repeat will be tough, but if he can make it to the playoffs, he still has a chance. Starting guys like Presley and Thames, you have no chance. What I like about the trade from Brian’s end is that he took a hit on the keeper end, but BJ Upton is more than solid as a keeper. And, sure, it hurts to lose a first rounder, but he’s only downgrading a couple rounds. And one could argue, teams found more success in the 3rd round this year than the 1st. Meanwhile, Pagan has the potential for a big second half and Frenchy and Soriano are significant upgrades to the Presley/Pierre/Thames/Melky/Hunter combo. Not to mention, Brian acquired 55 steals—a category that has been a problem for him this year. More challenges await, but he addressed his biggest area of need.
On Urban’s end, Morneau is expected to recover and Choo almost certainly will return to some semblance of the form that made him one of the top all around contributors in the league last year. Upton is a tough loss, but he’s also tough to rely on and can be very streaky. BJ probably has the most high end potential, but I think it is smart for Dan to build up a solid core in preparation for next year. There’s still work to be done, but CC, CYoung, Morneau and Choo are a nice start and the upgrade to a first rounder was a good move, though I think it probably could’ve been a more substantial upgrade. I’m a little surprised we haven’t seen more action on this front from Urban, especially considering Casten offered me a handjob for my 11th rounder. But Dan still got pieces to sell off with KJohnson, Jeter, Hafner, Napoli, CLee, Liriano, Vargas, Gallardo, FGarcia, and Tomlin all falling in the above-waiver-wire-material-and-useful-but-not-quite-keeper category.
All in all, again, nice work guys. Trade works for all parties.
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Trade Review - Grumpy and Keepin it Real
Grumpy Munchkins receive:
Desmond Jennings, 3rd round pick, 10th round pick
Keepin it Real receive:
Jayson Werth, 13th round pick, 15th round pick
There’s a few different things going on in this trade, but the primary focus should really be the acquisition of a third rounder next year for Werth. Jennings may have some value come playoff time, but I don’t believe he’s the type of prospect that deserved being rostered for this long, nor should any competitive team continue to keep him as a bench player. The 10th and 13th rounds are not very different and the 15th is basically the beginning of the “take a shot” territory in the draft (in fact, there is only one player from the 15th round 2011 draft who is on the same team they were drafted by-- Billy Chapel’s Ryan Madson). For Peirce, it’s not a bad move to take a shot on a guy like Werth, who has woefully underperformed in his new surroundings. Keepin it Real has plummeted in the standings after being in first not long ago, thanks to four straight losses to tough opponents (Donkey, Montezuma, Prestige, Ring), which has more or less corresponded with his trade of MCabrera. This team still has the talent to take it all this year, but Pierce is in need of offense and Werth has shown an ability to provide that in the past and the trade didn’t impact the 2011 team. I still think he could stand to dilute his pitching staff in exchange for an offensive boost (a Pineda trade to a non-contender would make a lot of sense), but I applaud him for not giving up. Unfortunately, one of Werth’s assets is his base-stealing ability and that’s really not a need for Pierce, meanwhile there are four guys on the waiver wire who have more homers than Werth—three of whom have a better OBP than Werth’s abysmal .319 and three have more RBIs than Werth’s paultry output of 31. Tough to feel sorry for Pierce though, as Jennings could’ve been moved for a litany of quality offensive performers on the waiver wire throughout the year. The lack of timely moves with guys like Jennings, Garland, and Lyon may ultimately cause this team’s demise.
For Brandon, I think he recovered nicely from the last trade, though I should note (and agree with Dagan), this does not entirely make up for the losses that I believe were sustained. The 3rd round of 2011 was filled with quality performers – Feliz, Soria, Buchholz, Napoli, Romero, Nolasco, Markakis, Dempster, Morrow, and Timmy and Danny Hudson – with a few minor duds in Soto and Pagan (no, Jason, he was not a keeper). The round provided many teams with that second tier of starting pitchers that is of the utmost importance in this league. Casten is loaded with top picks and he will no doubt be yanking his crank after the draft in 2012 because the team will look, in his mind anyway, better than anyone else’s. There’s something to be said for that. Meanwhile, there were concerns with Werth going into the season, namely because he never performed until he was in that small park in Philly with a lineup that ensured he was going to see pitches to hit. Washington is a big park and Werth has never had the power that Dunn/Morse/RZimmerman types have displayed during their time in the Capital; meanwhile, that lineup is pretty awful. I really don’t think Werth turns it around, certainly not to the point where he is worth drafting in the 3rd round next year. And it doesn’t really hurt the Munchkins, as Casten has other, more useful outfielders on his roster. I still don’t know if he’s going for it or building for next year, but all in all, it was a good move.
In summary, the trade makes sense for both teams, which is the best kind of trade. Pierce took a shot at someone who has performed well in the past with the hope of an offensive turnaround and Casten continues to stockpile early draft picks.
Desmond Jennings, 3rd round pick, 10th round pick
Keepin it Real receive:
Jayson Werth, 13th round pick, 15th round pick
There’s a few different things going on in this trade, but the primary focus should really be the acquisition of a third rounder next year for Werth. Jennings may have some value come playoff time, but I don’t believe he’s the type of prospect that deserved being rostered for this long, nor should any competitive team continue to keep him as a bench player. The 10th and 13th rounds are not very different and the 15th is basically the beginning of the “take a shot” territory in the draft (in fact, there is only one player from the 15th round 2011 draft who is on the same team they were drafted by-- Billy Chapel’s Ryan Madson). For Peirce, it’s not a bad move to take a shot on a guy like Werth, who has woefully underperformed in his new surroundings. Keepin it Real has plummeted in the standings after being in first not long ago, thanks to four straight losses to tough opponents (Donkey, Montezuma, Prestige, Ring), which has more or less corresponded with his trade of MCabrera. This team still has the talent to take it all this year, but Pierce is in need of offense and Werth has shown an ability to provide that in the past and the trade didn’t impact the 2011 team. I still think he could stand to dilute his pitching staff in exchange for an offensive boost (a Pineda trade to a non-contender would make a lot of sense), but I applaud him for not giving up. Unfortunately, one of Werth’s assets is his base-stealing ability and that’s really not a need for Pierce, meanwhile there are four guys on the waiver wire who have more homers than Werth—three of whom have a better OBP than Werth’s abysmal .319 and three have more RBIs than Werth’s paultry output of 31. Tough to feel sorry for Pierce though, as Jennings could’ve been moved for a litany of quality offensive performers on the waiver wire throughout the year. The lack of timely moves with guys like Jennings, Garland, and Lyon may ultimately cause this team’s demise.
For Brandon, I think he recovered nicely from the last trade, though I should note (and agree with Dagan), this does not entirely make up for the losses that I believe were sustained. The 3rd round of 2011 was filled with quality performers – Feliz, Soria, Buchholz, Napoli, Romero, Nolasco, Markakis, Dempster, Morrow, and Timmy and Danny Hudson – with a few minor duds in Soto and Pagan (no, Jason, he was not a keeper). The round provided many teams with that second tier of starting pitchers that is of the utmost importance in this league. Casten is loaded with top picks and he will no doubt be yanking his crank after the draft in 2012 because the team will look, in his mind anyway, better than anyone else’s. There’s something to be said for that. Meanwhile, there were concerns with Werth going into the season, namely because he never performed until he was in that small park in Philly with a lineup that ensured he was going to see pitches to hit. Washington is a big park and Werth has never had the power that Dunn/Morse/RZimmerman types have displayed during their time in the Capital; meanwhile, that lineup is pretty awful. I really don’t think Werth turns it around, certainly not to the point where he is worth drafting in the 3rd round next year. And it doesn’t really hurt the Munchkins, as Casten has other, more useful outfielders on his roster. I still don’t know if he’s going for it or building for next year, but all in all, it was a good move.
In summary, the trade makes sense for both teams, which is the best kind of trade. Pierce took a shot at someone who has performed well in the past with the hope of an offensive turnaround and Casten continues to stockpile early draft picks.
Monday, July 11, 2011
Trade Review - Grumpy Munchkins and One Nut
Grumpy Munchkins receive:
Michael Morse, Jayson Werth, Dominic Brown, 9th round pick
One Nut receives:
Josh Johnson, James Shields, Colby Lewis, 16th round pick
As compelling of a trade as we’ve seen this season given that it’s clear both owners had specific concerns related to pitching or hitting. For Casten, he bought high on Morse, who has had a great season with 15 hr and 49 rbi in 271 abs and a tidy .351 obp; and he bought low on Werth, who is clearly at the lowest value point he has been since before he became a regular in Philly. Werth has great 30/30 upside, but the massive ballpark is proving to be an issue and that .315 obp is not in line with what he’s done in the past. He’s certainly not worth keeping if the current output continues. Meanwhile, Morse’s output so far is in line from a rate standpoint last year, but didn’t get the playing time. His current rate this season equates to a 75r/30hr/100rbi over 550 abs, making him part of a keeper discussion, but there’s no track record here to rely on and he’s already proven to be streaky. Dom Brown is talented but has shown he’s still out of place in the majors and it is doubtful he will have a second half that proves he’s a guy worth keeping for 2012. Meanwhile, the pick is pretty good but also one of those “hit or miss” rounds. In 2011, the round brought forth a number of gems, including Stauffer, Hanrahan, Kennedy, IDavis, and Beltran, along with flops like FFrancisco, Encarnacian, Uribe, Kubel, and Snider. The 22nd round featured upside BLeague, AGordon, Masterson, and Crisp but the crap was seriously stinky in this round – Maybin, DJenning, Magglio, Ackley (minors until two weeks ago), and Dice-K. For Grumpy, there’s seemingly a nice boost to the offense here, but it’s hard to follow the thought process since the areas addressed (1B and OF) was actually a strongpoint for the team, with Pujols/Cabrera, Cutch, Heyward, and Boesch. While RRoberts, Moutsakas, and the immortal S-Rod (Reyes injured) stink up the infield. Not to mention the losses sustained in the deal that brought JJ to Grumpy have been significant, with Aramis and Masterson both excelling. Tough to see how this makes the currently playoff-bound team much better.
For Jason, his team is much more balanced today than it was a few days ago and the offense really doesn’t look any worse for its wear. Snider was a smart pickup to fill in the bench/util spot. Shields has been nothing short of spectacular and One Nut got great value here, even if his track record shows regression is likely at some point this season. Lewis is a roller coaster, but when you look at his numbers, they seem just fine (96 k in 112 inning, 4.38/1.24 and 11 qs) for a mid-rotation type. Johnson is a big question mark for this season, but if he doesn’t come back until September, that’s still not so bad. At the very least, he’s trade bait for the offseason or a high risk keeper. A JJ/Morrow/Wandy/Latos/Shields fivesome would look pretty nice heading into the playoffs. And Jason maximizes value for Pick-Up of the Year Morse.
Overall, I thought Jason made out very well and the move makes his roster much more balanced, which I thought was the team’s biggest problem at the midway point. Meanwhile, I know Casten knows his stuff and he’s always been a bit of a loner when it comes to strategy, but without receiving clear, knock-it-of-the-park keeper or very high draft pick, he has a seriously depleted pitching staff and it doesn’t appear as though he’s setting himself up for the future or this season. The pick upgrade is nice, but not enough to make up for the loss of talent. Frankly, I think the trade would’ve been fair without including JJ, who could very well come back in the second half and be unstoppable again. At the very least, he would’ve been trade bait. I could be wrong and certainly Casten’s team has rebounded since my midpoint analysis, but, for now, chalk this one up in the win column for Jason.
Michael Morse, Jayson Werth, Dominic Brown, 9th round pick
One Nut receives:
Josh Johnson, James Shields, Colby Lewis, 16th round pick
As compelling of a trade as we’ve seen this season given that it’s clear both owners had specific concerns related to pitching or hitting. For Casten, he bought high on Morse, who has had a great season with 15 hr and 49 rbi in 271 abs and a tidy .351 obp; and he bought low on Werth, who is clearly at the lowest value point he has been since before he became a regular in Philly. Werth has great 30/30 upside, but the massive ballpark is proving to be an issue and that .315 obp is not in line with what he’s done in the past. He’s certainly not worth keeping if the current output continues. Meanwhile, Morse’s output so far is in line from a rate standpoint last year, but didn’t get the playing time. His current rate this season equates to a 75r/30hr/100rbi over 550 abs, making him part of a keeper discussion, but there’s no track record here to rely on and he’s already proven to be streaky. Dom Brown is talented but has shown he’s still out of place in the majors and it is doubtful he will have a second half that proves he’s a guy worth keeping for 2012. Meanwhile, the pick is pretty good but also one of those “hit or miss” rounds. In 2011, the round brought forth a number of gems, including Stauffer, Hanrahan, Kennedy, IDavis, and Beltran, along with flops like FFrancisco, Encarnacian, Uribe, Kubel, and Snider. The 22nd round featured upside BLeague, AGordon, Masterson, and Crisp but the crap was seriously stinky in this round – Maybin, DJenning, Magglio, Ackley (minors until two weeks ago), and Dice-K. For Grumpy, there’s seemingly a nice boost to the offense here, but it’s hard to follow the thought process since the areas addressed (1B and OF) was actually a strongpoint for the team, with Pujols/Cabrera, Cutch, Heyward, and Boesch. While RRoberts, Moutsakas, and the immortal S-Rod (Reyes injured) stink up the infield. Not to mention the losses sustained in the deal that brought JJ to Grumpy have been significant, with Aramis and Masterson both excelling. Tough to see how this makes the currently playoff-bound team much better.
For Jason, his team is much more balanced today than it was a few days ago and the offense really doesn’t look any worse for its wear. Snider was a smart pickup to fill in the bench/util spot. Shields has been nothing short of spectacular and One Nut got great value here, even if his track record shows regression is likely at some point this season. Lewis is a roller coaster, but when you look at his numbers, they seem just fine (96 k in 112 inning, 4.38/1.24 and 11 qs) for a mid-rotation type. Johnson is a big question mark for this season, but if he doesn’t come back until September, that’s still not so bad. At the very least, he’s trade bait for the offseason or a high risk keeper. A JJ/Morrow/Wandy/Latos/Shields fivesome would look pretty nice heading into the playoffs. And Jason maximizes value for Pick-Up of the Year Morse.
Overall, I thought Jason made out very well and the move makes his roster much more balanced, which I thought was the team’s biggest problem at the midway point. Meanwhile, I know Casten knows his stuff and he’s always been a bit of a loner when it comes to strategy, but without receiving clear, knock-it-of-the-park keeper or very high draft pick, he has a seriously depleted pitching staff and it doesn’t appear as though he’s setting himself up for the future or this season. The pick upgrade is nice, but not enough to make up for the loss of talent. Frankly, I think the trade would’ve been fair without including JJ, who could very well come back in the second half and be unstoppable again. At the very least, he would’ve been trade bait. I could be wrong and certainly Casten’s team has rebounded since my midpoint analysis, but, for now, chalk this one up in the win column for Jason.
Monday, July 4, 2011
Trade Review - Cowhide Joyride and Colon No Like Salad
Cowhide Joyride receives:
Prince Fielder, 5th round pick
Colon No Like Salad receives:
Josh Hamilton, Alexei Ramirez, 3rd round pick
A blockbuster that makes a lot of sense for both teams, as Dave has put up with Billy Butler as his first baseman long enough and Russ has had difficulty finding an OF to fit in next to CarGo and Stanton. The picks are more or less a wash since they're so close, especially given the gravity of talent involved. Hamilton had an unfortunate injury but has been otherwise productive. Alexei has been typical Alexei, a solid contributor in counting categories compared to others at the position, though he can run into frustrating cold streaks. For Russ, replacing the likes of WVeneble and AEscobar with Hamilton and Ramirez, while only downgrading from Prince to Gaby Sanchez at first, could be the cure to what ails this suprisingly struggling team that is a few more bad weeks from an insurmountable hole. In the end, Russ also doesn't lose much on a keeper perspective and one could argue Hamilton is better based on his position. There's still a chance for Colon to make a run here if Hughes comes back to life, Zambrano's stint on the DL is short, Colon comes back in full force and Oganda proves the last couple weeks were just a bump in the road - there's still eight weeks left. That Halladay/Kershaw/Gio trio has been one of the best in the league, so keep an eye on this team. Still needs an upgrade to the UTIL slots though, as Rolen/BWallace/Maybin/Chisenhall is less than ideal.
For Dave, his offense could become a monster providing his now thinner OF maintains productivity. Beltran has been excellent, LoMo has been decent but not great, Joyce has slowed down considerable and VWells is probably best left for the back up position. It wasn't an obvious position for Dave to trade away from, but Prince is a top shelf first baseman in a contract year and is a huge improvement at first. Butler is more of a UTIL type, which he now becomes; he and Reynolds will provide nice production from those spots. IF RZimmerman can get going, this offense could explode, which Dave needs because he's only just above Russ near the bottom of the standings.
Overall, I'd personally rather have the Prince side of the deal, since he's the better, younger, healthier player. But given his current spot in the standings and the overall value of Hamilton as a keeper, I can't fault Russ for taking a shot here and helping the team overall. Either way, these guys are sitting in the 13th and 12th spots in the standings with eight weeks to make a move, so it makes sense to shake things up.
Prince Fielder, 5th round pick
Colon No Like Salad receives:
Josh Hamilton, Alexei Ramirez, 3rd round pick
A blockbuster that makes a lot of sense for both teams, as Dave has put up with Billy Butler as his first baseman long enough and Russ has had difficulty finding an OF to fit in next to CarGo and Stanton. The picks are more or less a wash since they're so close, especially given the gravity of talent involved. Hamilton had an unfortunate injury but has been otherwise productive. Alexei has been typical Alexei, a solid contributor in counting categories compared to others at the position, though he can run into frustrating cold streaks. For Russ, replacing the likes of WVeneble and AEscobar with Hamilton and Ramirez, while only downgrading from Prince to Gaby Sanchez at first, could be the cure to what ails this suprisingly struggling team that is a few more bad weeks from an insurmountable hole. In the end, Russ also doesn't lose much on a keeper perspective and one could argue Hamilton is better based on his position. There's still a chance for Colon to make a run here if Hughes comes back to life, Zambrano's stint on the DL is short, Colon comes back in full force and Oganda proves the last couple weeks were just a bump in the road - there's still eight weeks left. That Halladay/Kershaw/Gio trio has been one of the best in the league, so keep an eye on this team. Still needs an upgrade to the UTIL slots though, as Rolen/BWallace/Maybin/Chisenhall is less than ideal.
For Dave, his offense could become a monster providing his now thinner OF maintains productivity. Beltran has been excellent, LoMo has been decent but not great, Joyce has slowed down considerable and VWells is probably best left for the back up position. It wasn't an obvious position for Dave to trade away from, but Prince is a top shelf first baseman in a contract year and is a huge improvement at first. Butler is more of a UTIL type, which he now becomes; he and Reynolds will provide nice production from those spots. IF RZimmerman can get going, this offense could explode, which Dave needs because he's only just above Russ near the bottom of the standings.
Overall, I'd personally rather have the Prince side of the deal, since he's the better, younger, healthier player. But given his current spot in the standings and the overall value of Hamilton as a keeper, I can't fault Russ for taking a shot here and helping the team overall. Either way, these guys are sitting in the 13th and 12th spots in the standings with eight weeks to make a move, so it makes sense to shake things up.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Trade Review - Urban Achievers and Montezuma's Revenge
Urban Achievers receive:
SS Derek Jeter, 3B Pedro Alvarez
Montezuma’s Revenge receive:
3B/SS Jhonny Peralta, SP Ervin Santana
This is one of those trades that everyone should remember when you’re looking at your team right after the draft, before the season starts and think “this team is going to rock! I’m not sure I’ll need to make any transactions!” For me, I started the season loving my offense (particularly having young studs Alvarez and Ian Stewart at the hot corner!!) and hating the depth of pitching. Turns out it’s the offense that has struggled, while the depth of pitching has kept me afloat despite injuries. I can’t remember the last time my team only occupied two DL spots, and it kept adding on Wednesday when EBedard went on the DL (thankfully, not arm-related). Trading two DL players will help me manage my roster more easily going forward, at least until the next injury occurs. Peralta has been one of those sneaky good players this year (35 R, 13 HR, 47 RBI, .360 OBP – ranked 60 overall by Yahoo!) who provides depth at two thin positions, and Santana has been a fine contributor (92 Ks with a reasonable 4.08 ERA and 1.28 WHIP and 9 QS) and addresses the need for a strikeout pitcher. Jeter was made expendable by my new binky, JJ Hardy, and, even if he comes back before the All Star break, it was going to take some time for Pedro to work himself back into the circle of trust. Overall, it weakens my team in the speed category, which I am already weak in, but hopefully Jemile Weeks will continue to tear up the basepaths. I also like that I managed to fix some problems without trading Posey, my biggest chip for teams that drop out.
For Urban, this trade makes a lot of sense. Alvarez was by far the biggest flop in the draft, but he still has a half season to prove his worth and could very well live up to his pedigree by the end of the year. His immense power potential could make me look foolish. Certainly, a decent second half would make him keeper-worthy on this expansion team, especially considering the lack of depth at 3B. Jeter, meanwhile, is probably no longer keeper-worthy, but should at least yield Dan a decent pick from one of the teams starting fringe shortstops or with questionable UTIL players.
On the surface, Jeter and former top MLB draft pick Alvarez are much bigger names, but their seasons have not come close to the size of their perceived talent. I was obviously convinced, having grabbed him with the fourth overall pick (I would’ve drafted him with the first). Look no further than their O-Rank before the season (Alvarez 83rd and Jeter 40th) to see which side has the most potential. But given the injuries to the Revenge, this makes a lot of sense from both a depth and roster management perspective. All in all, not a truly impactful trade, but one that made sense for both teams.
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Trade Review - Angry Pirates & Colon No Like Salad
The Angry Pirates receive:
1B Freddie Freeman, 11th rounder, 12th rounder
Colon No Like Salad receive:
1B Brett Wallace, 5th rounder, 8th rounder
This trade is interesting in that it is sooo not interesting. Freeman is the better of the young first basemen and the younger one (Wallace is 25 in August, Freeman is 22 in September). Freeman has 30 more at bats and 11 more rbi (21 vs. 32) and 5 more homers, while both have scored 32 runs and have basically no speed. Wallace’s OBP of .380 was really the only contribution of any value to this point, despite hitting fifth in a surprisingly decent offense. He really has no business being a starting first baseman in High & Tight and is borderline waiver material. Freeman, meanwhile, struggled early on but is starting to show some power. He has good long-term potential, but his performance so far leaves something to be desired from an offensively oriented position.
Draft picks are difficult to fully grasp in terms of value because your essentially just delaying the consequences for a short-term gain. Some highlights from the 2011 fifth round – Axford, Kuroda, Hellickson, Papelbon, Garza, Torii Hunter, FCordero JZimmerman, Chacin, and James Shields. Worst pick of this round was Furcal, who went to Urban with the top pick, and the recently dropped Vlad and Ian Desmond, as well as the ever-frustrating Brett Myers. The 8th round had some great steals in Gaby Sanchez and Michael Pineda, along with massive busts (RFranklin, ALaRoche, JSantana, Broxton, Fowler). Meanwhile it was a lot of hit and miss in the 11th and 12th with Bedard, Moreland, Kimbrel, Tabata, and LMorrison proving exceptional and Asdrubal obviously a very good for Lars. But the picks were mostly unsuccessful, with Colvin, Pelfrey, IStewart, BCecil, DLee, Veneble, Ruiz, RSoriano, Lidge among them. Needless to say, the later picks in the deal are crapshoot territory, while the fifth rounder (technically, the 11th) next year may ultimately prove to be the best player in this deal.
In terms of players for this season, Kyle definitely got the better one and it makes his team immediately better. But not THAT much better to make it was worth the picks, which makes it a win for Russ in my mind. It would be different if I considered Freeman keeper worthy, but with his production to this point and the depth of hearty statistics available at first, he’s not there yet.
1B Freddie Freeman, 11th rounder, 12th rounder
Colon No Like Salad receive:
1B Brett Wallace, 5th rounder, 8th rounder
This trade is interesting in that it is sooo not interesting. Freeman is the better of the young first basemen and the younger one (Wallace is 25 in August, Freeman is 22 in September). Freeman has 30 more at bats and 11 more rbi (21 vs. 32) and 5 more homers, while both have scored 32 runs and have basically no speed. Wallace’s OBP of .380 was really the only contribution of any value to this point, despite hitting fifth in a surprisingly decent offense. He really has no business being a starting first baseman in High & Tight and is borderline waiver material. Freeman, meanwhile, struggled early on but is starting to show some power. He has good long-term potential, but his performance so far leaves something to be desired from an offensively oriented position.
Draft picks are difficult to fully grasp in terms of value because your essentially just delaying the consequences for a short-term gain. Some highlights from the 2011 fifth round – Axford, Kuroda, Hellickson, Papelbon, Garza, Torii Hunter, FCordero JZimmerman, Chacin, and James Shields. Worst pick of this round was Furcal, who went to Urban with the top pick, and the recently dropped Vlad and Ian Desmond, as well as the ever-frustrating Brett Myers. The 8th round had some great steals in Gaby Sanchez and Michael Pineda, along with massive busts (RFranklin, ALaRoche, JSantana, Broxton, Fowler). Meanwhile it was a lot of hit and miss in the 11th and 12th with Bedard, Moreland, Kimbrel, Tabata, and LMorrison proving exceptional and Asdrubal obviously a very good for Lars. But the picks were mostly unsuccessful, with Colvin, Pelfrey, IStewart, BCecil, DLee, Veneble, Ruiz, RSoriano, Lidge among them. Needless to say, the later picks in the deal are crapshoot territory, while the fifth rounder (technically, the 11th) next year may ultimately prove to be the best player in this deal.
In terms of players for this season, Kyle definitely got the better one and it makes his team immediately better. But not THAT much better to make it was worth the picks, which makes it a win for Russ in my mind. It would be different if I considered Freeman keeper worthy, but with his production to this point and the depth of hearty statistics available at first, he’s not there yet.
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