Cowhide Joyride receives:
Prince Fielder, 5th round pick
Colon No Like Salad receives:
Josh Hamilton, Alexei Ramirez, 3rd round pick
A blockbuster that makes a lot of sense for both teams, as Dave has put up with Billy Butler as his first baseman long enough and Russ has had difficulty finding an OF to fit in next to CarGo and Stanton. The picks are more or less a wash since they're so close, especially given the gravity of talent involved. Hamilton had an unfortunate injury but has been otherwise productive. Alexei has been typical Alexei, a solid contributor in counting categories compared to others at the position, though he can run into frustrating cold streaks. For Russ, replacing the likes of WVeneble and AEscobar with Hamilton and Ramirez, while only downgrading from Prince to Gaby Sanchez at first, could be the cure to what ails this suprisingly struggling team that is a few more bad weeks from an insurmountable hole. In the end, Russ also doesn't lose much on a keeper perspective and one could argue Hamilton is better based on his position. There's still a chance for Colon to make a run here if Hughes comes back to life, Zambrano's stint on the DL is short, Colon comes back in full force and Oganda proves the last couple weeks were just a bump in the road - there's still eight weeks left. That Halladay/Kershaw/Gio trio has been one of the best in the league, so keep an eye on this team. Still needs an upgrade to the UTIL slots though, as Rolen/BWallace/Maybin/Chisenhall is less than ideal.
For Dave, his offense could become a monster providing his now thinner OF maintains productivity. Beltran has been excellent, LoMo has been decent but not great, Joyce has slowed down considerable and VWells is probably best left for the back up position. It wasn't an obvious position for Dave to trade away from, but Prince is a top shelf first baseman in a contract year and is a huge improvement at first. Butler is more of a UTIL type, which he now becomes; he and Reynolds will provide nice production from those spots. IF RZimmerman can get going, this offense could explode, which Dave needs because he's only just above Russ near the bottom of the standings.
Overall, I'd personally rather have the Prince side of the deal, since he's the better, younger, healthier player. But given his current spot in the standings and the overall value of Hamilton as a keeper, I can't fault Russ for taking a shot here and helping the team overall. Either way, these guys are sitting in the 13th and 12th spots in the standings with eight weeks to make a move, so it makes sense to shake things up.
Monday, July 4, 2011
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Trade Review - Urban Achievers and Montezuma's Revenge
Urban Achievers receive:
SS Derek Jeter, 3B Pedro Alvarez
Montezuma’s Revenge receive:
3B/SS Jhonny Peralta, SP Ervin Santana
This is one of those trades that everyone should remember when you’re looking at your team right after the draft, before the season starts and think “this team is going to rock! I’m not sure I’ll need to make any transactions!” For me, I started the season loving my offense (particularly having young studs Alvarez and Ian Stewart at the hot corner!!) and hating the depth of pitching. Turns out it’s the offense that has struggled, while the depth of pitching has kept me afloat despite injuries. I can’t remember the last time my team only occupied two DL spots, and it kept adding on Wednesday when EBedard went on the DL (thankfully, not arm-related). Trading two DL players will help me manage my roster more easily going forward, at least until the next injury occurs. Peralta has been one of those sneaky good players this year (35 R, 13 HR, 47 RBI, .360 OBP – ranked 60 overall by Yahoo!) who provides depth at two thin positions, and Santana has been a fine contributor (92 Ks with a reasonable 4.08 ERA and 1.28 WHIP and 9 QS) and addresses the need for a strikeout pitcher. Jeter was made expendable by my new binky, JJ Hardy, and, even if he comes back before the All Star break, it was going to take some time for Pedro to work himself back into the circle of trust. Overall, it weakens my team in the speed category, which I am already weak in, but hopefully Jemile Weeks will continue to tear up the basepaths. I also like that I managed to fix some problems without trading Posey, my biggest chip for teams that drop out.
For Urban, this trade makes a lot of sense. Alvarez was by far the biggest flop in the draft, but he still has a half season to prove his worth and could very well live up to his pedigree by the end of the year. His immense power potential could make me look foolish. Certainly, a decent second half would make him keeper-worthy on this expansion team, especially considering the lack of depth at 3B. Jeter, meanwhile, is probably no longer keeper-worthy, but should at least yield Dan a decent pick from one of the teams starting fringe shortstops or with questionable UTIL players.
On the surface, Jeter and former top MLB draft pick Alvarez are much bigger names, but their seasons have not come close to the size of their perceived talent. I was obviously convinced, having grabbed him with the fourth overall pick (I would’ve drafted him with the first). Look no further than their O-Rank before the season (Alvarez 83rd and Jeter 40th) to see which side has the most potential. But given the injuries to the Revenge, this makes a lot of sense from both a depth and roster management perspective. All in all, not a truly impactful trade, but one that made sense for both teams.
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Trade Review - Angry Pirates & Colon No Like Salad
The Angry Pirates receive:
1B Freddie Freeman, 11th rounder, 12th rounder
Colon No Like Salad receive:
1B Brett Wallace, 5th rounder, 8th rounder
This trade is interesting in that it is sooo not interesting. Freeman is the better of the young first basemen and the younger one (Wallace is 25 in August, Freeman is 22 in September). Freeman has 30 more at bats and 11 more rbi (21 vs. 32) and 5 more homers, while both have scored 32 runs and have basically no speed. Wallace’s OBP of .380 was really the only contribution of any value to this point, despite hitting fifth in a surprisingly decent offense. He really has no business being a starting first baseman in High & Tight and is borderline waiver material. Freeman, meanwhile, struggled early on but is starting to show some power. He has good long-term potential, but his performance so far leaves something to be desired from an offensively oriented position.
Draft picks are difficult to fully grasp in terms of value because your essentially just delaying the consequences for a short-term gain. Some highlights from the 2011 fifth round – Axford, Kuroda, Hellickson, Papelbon, Garza, Torii Hunter, FCordero JZimmerman, Chacin, and James Shields. Worst pick of this round was Furcal, who went to Urban with the top pick, and the recently dropped Vlad and Ian Desmond, as well as the ever-frustrating Brett Myers. The 8th round had some great steals in Gaby Sanchez and Michael Pineda, along with massive busts (RFranklin, ALaRoche, JSantana, Broxton, Fowler). Meanwhile it was a lot of hit and miss in the 11th and 12th with Bedard, Moreland, Kimbrel, Tabata, and LMorrison proving exceptional and Asdrubal obviously a very good for Lars. But the picks were mostly unsuccessful, with Colvin, Pelfrey, IStewart, BCecil, DLee, Veneble, Ruiz, RSoriano, Lidge among them. Needless to say, the later picks in the deal are crapshoot territory, while the fifth rounder (technically, the 11th) next year may ultimately prove to be the best player in this deal.
In terms of players for this season, Kyle definitely got the better one and it makes his team immediately better. But not THAT much better to make it was worth the picks, which makes it a win for Russ in my mind. It would be different if I considered Freeman keeper worthy, but with his production to this point and the depth of hearty statistics available at first, he’s not there yet.
1B Freddie Freeman, 11th rounder, 12th rounder
Colon No Like Salad receive:
1B Brett Wallace, 5th rounder, 8th rounder
This trade is interesting in that it is sooo not interesting. Freeman is the better of the young first basemen and the younger one (Wallace is 25 in August, Freeman is 22 in September). Freeman has 30 more at bats and 11 more rbi (21 vs. 32) and 5 more homers, while both have scored 32 runs and have basically no speed. Wallace’s OBP of .380 was really the only contribution of any value to this point, despite hitting fifth in a surprisingly decent offense. He really has no business being a starting first baseman in High & Tight and is borderline waiver material. Freeman, meanwhile, struggled early on but is starting to show some power. He has good long-term potential, but his performance so far leaves something to be desired from an offensively oriented position.
Draft picks are difficult to fully grasp in terms of value because your essentially just delaying the consequences for a short-term gain. Some highlights from the 2011 fifth round – Axford, Kuroda, Hellickson, Papelbon, Garza, Torii Hunter, FCordero JZimmerman, Chacin, and James Shields. Worst pick of this round was Furcal, who went to Urban with the top pick, and the recently dropped Vlad and Ian Desmond, as well as the ever-frustrating Brett Myers. The 8th round had some great steals in Gaby Sanchez and Michael Pineda, along with massive busts (RFranklin, ALaRoche, JSantana, Broxton, Fowler). Meanwhile it was a lot of hit and miss in the 11th and 12th with Bedard, Moreland, Kimbrel, Tabata, and LMorrison proving exceptional and Asdrubal obviously a very good for Lars. But the picks were mostly unsuccessful, with Colvin, Pelfrey, IStewart, BCecil, DLee, Veneble, Ruiz, RSoriano, Lidge among them. Needless to say, the later picks in the deal are crapshoot territory, while the fifth rounder (technically, the 11th) next year may ultimately prove to be the best player in this deal.
In terms of players for this season, Kyle definitely got the better one and it makes his team immediately better. But not THAT much better to make it was worth the picks, which makes it a win for Russ in my mind. It would be different if I considered Freeman keeper worthy, but with his production to this point and the depth of hearty statistics available at first, he’s not there yet.
Midseason Review
1. Prestige Worldwide (61-43-6)
The Commish has overcome the injury to Longo in large part because of the emergence of Assdribble Cabrera, who has been the runaway fantasy MVP (Berkman is in the conversation, but SS is very weak). A-Gon and Granderson have been among the top players the entire season and the imposing offense is solid top to bottom. Pitching is questionable due to a severe lack of consistency. Guys like Hudson, Britton, Lackey, Pavano, and JSanchez make it difficult to know whether you’ll have a 2.00 era or over 4.00. Chacin and Price are high quality. The bullpen leaves much to be desired with Capps and Francisco not necessarily on the firmest ground and the Uehera/Broxton/Kuo combo thoroughly underwhelming. Still, if the pitching can win him two or three categories per week, he’ll win his matchup more often than not with that offense (8-3 in hr, 8-3 in r, 9-2 in rbi).
Going forward: An improvement to the pitching staff would be advisable. If he doesn’t want to take from his offense, dealing Price could net at least two solid top-tier (but not quite keeper) options. There’s no room here to keep a pitcher anyway.
Best move: Other than drafting Asdrubal, trading for Ethier for Stubbs during Andre’s hitting streak was a great move and also brought him a high pick.
Worst move: Not much to criticize here, but with a staff as inconsistent as it is there are too many roster spots devoted to middle relief/speculative closers.
2. Donkey Punchers (62-45-3)
Like Pierce, Chris has made very few roster moves (eight to be exact), yet sits near the top of the standings. Both owners should be applauded for their drafting ability this year. However, unlike Pierce, Chris has loads of power. In fact, even if he just had Berkman, Bautista, Cruz, and Teix (a combined 74- as of a week ago), he’d have more total home runs than SEVEN teams. He also ranks first in runs and is high in OBP and RBIs. His bullpen is killer with Bell, Marmol, Farnsworth, and Nunez, whose 50 saves are only two behind the leader. The other pitching categories are middle of the road, but respectable and would be better if Lilly and Carpenter returned to form. But the staff is solid. Overall, the team is probably the most balanced in the league and stands to make noise come playoff time.
Going forward: Pierce and Chris need to talk. They obviously like their own teams, but Chris has excess power and saves and needs a frontline SP. Pierce has SPs coming out his ass and no power or saves. Lets get these kids together.
Best move: Drafting Berkman in the 16th round. Whoa. Oh and he butt-raped Kyle in the Teix trade too.
Worst move: While the CC trade looked good on the surface, Cahill has stunk and CC is very consistent, while Marmol has been good, but an adventure at times. Of course, he added a first rounder in that trade too, so it wasn’t that bad.
3. Keepin it Real (58-43-9)
What a transformation for Pierce’s squad, who posted the third best record in the first half using only seven transactions. Whether you consider apathy or confidence in his drafted roster, you can’t argue the results, which are a refreshing change for the habitual bottom-dweller. There’s speed all over this team with Tabata, Pedroia, Ichiro, and Ells all totaling over a dozen SBs, which easily leads the league. His run total is top 5 and OBP is middling, but HR and RBI totals are among the worst in the league, making you wonder if this is a smoke and mirror type team that will eventually fade away. Meanwhile, he has no closer, and thus no saves, but his starters are really keeping this club afloat with Lester, Hanson, Pineda, Cain, Lee, Anibal, and Garza formulating the best staff in High & Tight. He’s only 4-6-1 in the K category and 5-4-2 in QS, but that will go up and the rates (9-2-0 for both) should be consistent. It will be Pierce’s offense that makes or breaks the team. Wright and Panda’s return would help.
Going forward: May want to think about dealing some of that speed and pitching to sure up other areas like power and saves.
Best move: Drafting in rounds 11-14 (Garza, Anibal, CJ Wilson, Pineda)
Worst move: Not making moves. DJennings isn’t good enough to have warranted a roster spot this long and Brandon Lyon has occupied the DL spot far too long.
4. Montezuma’s Revenge (54-44-12)
No one is more surprised than I am to see my team ranked this high, as injuries have plagued the team for most of the year (seven DLed players at one point). But I’ve managed to utilize my 32 transactions in a way that has kept me afloat. The offense has been anemic with a record below .500 in every offensive category, but still has some valuable parts with Pence and Upton among the top 50 players. I do give myself credit for overcoming the injury to the one true ace, JJ, and filling the staff with solid, consistent contributors who have allowed me to be one of two teams to never lose in a single category with a 9-0-2 record in QS (Angry Pirates has a clean plate with saves, 10-0-1). The key has been hedging inconsistent K guys (like Volquez and Holland) with consistent rate pitchers (IKennedy, Bedard, Jurrjens, Kuroda, Buchholz, McCarthy, and Stauffer). Having one closer (following the RFranklin, FRodney, JMcGee disasters) has hurt overall, but has allowed me to pick up wins when matched up against closerless teams. With 12 ties, this team could easily be higher in the standings or much lower.
Going forward: The offense, namely Dunn, Alvarez, Sizemore, Hosmer, Rasmus, and Santana, needs to produce to give me a chance to win. Trading Posey once a team drops out of the race could help here.
Best move: Grabbing Hosmer, who looks like a long-term keeper, and drafting Jurrjens in the 24th and Bedard in the 17th.
Worst move: It’s looking more and more like I’ll regret filling my hole at catcher with Santana, who is good but Lind has been amazing. Fucking Scott Cousins. Oh and the Ian Stewart/Pedro Alvarez strategy to 3B hasn’t quite worked out as planned. And I probably should’ve kept Haren over Jeter. Oh and Dunn is a piece of crap. But can’t whine too much with a record like that.
5. Angry Pirates (54-48-8)
The record is pretty surprising given that Kyle has been part of four trades and has seemingly been on the losing side of all of them. Sure he rid himself of Morales and got Teix to begin the season, but he also lost Soria, Latos, and his second pick next year and ultimately traded Teix (Lohse, Arrieta, and fourth rounder) and really only got Holliday and Moreland to show for it. The aforementioned Stubbs-Ethier trade didn’t work out (and he lost his first rounder). Meanwhile, he gave up CSantana, Phillips, Upton, DBrown and two third rounders for Felix Hernandez (Brantley has been OK, got a sixth rounder back). He’s worked around that with a lights out bullpen and strong pitching from Hamels, Felix, and Baker. But this team needs some work to keep up this playoff-bound pace. Moreland, Beckham, AJackson, DYoung, and Brantley are all starting lineup fixtures that are best left for a bench (Moreland more of a UTIL type). Meanwhile, the back end of the rotation has a lot of question marks with Chatwood, Wake, EJax, Wade Davis, and Matusz.
Going forward: To improve depth, a trade of Holliday or Hamels could do wonders and solidify some of the question marks. And with a number of teams looking for bullpen help, trading one of the closers could yield some quality players and still allow Kyle to compete in the category.
Best move: Neil Walker seemed like a reach in the fourth round this year, but has proven to be very valuable, while late draft picks Hanrahan and Walden are completely legit.
Worst move: Other than the trades? Delmon Young in the second round is painful. But the real issue will be next season when he doesn’t have a pick until the fifth round.
6. One Nut Wonders (55-50-5)
Always an adventure, Jason is never afraid to trade anyone and has been part of seven trades so far (with a trade proposal-to-completion ratio no doubt below 1%) with mixed results. Certainly the Morales trades was tough to swallow, but made easier with finding Mike Morse on the waiver wire. The Reyes – Hanley trade may be one he regrets, especially with the two high picks he had to give up, but did a good job getting Lind for one of his two top tier catchers. His draft has produced some extreme highs (Quentin, Montero) and extreme lows (EdwinEnc, BMyers) and after all the roster turnover, he’s left with an offense that is superb (though, perhaps better on paper) and a pitching staff with a lot of holes, with Wandy about the only guy who could be considered solid to this point (though Latos and Morrow certainly have the ability).
Going forward: Another trade or two (or twelve) are no doubt in Jason’s future, so this roster could look very different in a few weeks. But pitching is badly needed to balance this team. Or else he’s going to have a lot of weeks like the last one, where he’s left with his hand on his crank, dreaming of Braun, Morse, and Lind and his dominant offensive week, while his team goes 4-6.
Best move: Morse and Lind pick ups, closer drafting.
Worst move: Drafting Edwin “I’m about to blow your mind” Encarnacion.
7. Anal Hershiser (53-50-7)
Proof that an expansion team could join the league and put together a quality group of keepers (Verlander, Bruce, Cain, Haren, Konerko, Rasmus) without a confusing expansion draft. That was followed with a solid, albeit unspectacular, draft and some good moves on the waiver wire (Phil Humber) and one bad one (dropping Stauffer), and one bad trade (Tomlin and McClellan for Cain). All in all, a pretty good start that leave Anal in the position to get one of the eight playoff spots. The team is balanced enough to maintain the pace, but there are some contributors playing over their heads at the moment that will have to keep it up – Dickey, Livan, Marquis, Moseley, Humber, Turner, and Helton to name a few. But if Swisher, Cuddyer, and Cueto live up to their potential in the second half, this team could have a shot.
Going forward: The infield could use help with neither JTurner nor Cuddyer everyday starter-worthy. Verlander could command a lot of good players that could boost this area.
Best move: Other than solid keeper picking, Humber has been one of the best stories of the first half.
Worst move: Boy, I bet you wish you didn’t drop Bud Norris. And, again, Cain was worth more than that.
8. Ring of Fire (51-52-7)
Unfamiliar territory for the three-time former champion, who has faced some difficult match ups as of late and probably is better than where he sit in the standings (he’s top three in all total offensive categories except SB). His selections off the waiver wire have been spot on, with such standouts as Avila (who needs Mauer?), Espinosa, Norris, Salas, Melancon, and Vogelsong. And while Kemp has rebounded nicely and Ortiz decided to play the first couple months, Youk’s production isn’t quite where it has been in the past and Votto doesn’t have the power numbers you’d expect. Dagan’s patience with CPena has paid off. Lowrie served his purpose for a few weeks but came back to Earth and injuries to Mauer and Ike have hurt, while no one has been more frustrating to own than Ubaldo. But the staff is solid with Hellboy and Romero proving to be good picks and his bullpen overcame the lost of Thornton with Salas a key speculative add. It will be interesting to see if the pitchers can maintain this performance and match the quality of the offense, which has not yet been full force. Could make a serious second half run.
Going forward: Shortstop is a problem, with Dee Gordon not the answer and Lowrie only mediocre/injured. May be able to get something for Avila. Maybe package with Ubaldo to grab a top tier SP that is performing like one. Trades are fun Dagan, try one.
Best move: Vogelsong pickup. Crazy numbers. Sustainable? That’s another question.
Worst move: Drafting Brett Cecil again was odd, the Thornton pick certainly hurt.
9. Moose is Loose (50-52-8)
Actually, Brian is doing pretty good considering some of the challenges, which began with Greinke attempt at an NBA career. The underperformance of keepers Morneau, Uggla, and Choo are enough to kill any team, but the general suckiness of high picks Dempster (recently bounced back), Danks, and Pierre have also proven challenging. While other picks like Kubel, Braden, DLee, Richard, TWood, Thome, and Westbrook have all been more or less worthless. That said, Smoak has proven to be a great pick and his bullpen picking (KRod, Putz, Fuentes, and League) was superb. Melky has helped as well, but all in all the waiver wire has not helped. Moose is pretty much .500 across all categories with the exception of saves and steals, which cancel eachother out. The success of the team will hinge on getting contributions from those who have disappointed in the first half. If they do, Brian’s .500 play to this point will prove to be extremely valuable and most assuredly place last year’s champ back in playoff contention.
Going forward: Hold tight and hope for a turnaround or trade off assets while they’re still some speculative value? The answer probably lies somewhere in between.
Best move: Refusing offers for Tulo, drafting League in the 22nd.
Worst move: When needed most, the waiver wire pickups just have not been helpful.
10. Cowhide Joyride (49-54-7)
Dave had an up and down draft with very bright spots like Beckett, Andrus, Storen, Beltran, and LoMo and some big misses like Butler, Manny, Daisuke, Barton and Drew. Injuries to Hamilton and Zimmerman, along Reynolds slow start, sent him into a bit of a early season tailspin. Things have turned around recently and his team is healthy. There’s certainly enough talent here, but I wonder weather his pitching strategy will work with only seven starters and five relievers – two of whom are setup men, albeit good ones. He’s played the waiver wire relatively well, sending off players that aren’t showing much reboundability and grabbing guys like Joyce, RRoberts, and Wells. The roster is pretty well set up to make a serious run if healthy.
Going forward: A quality starting pitcher would probably help. With some of the shortstops currently starting in this league, I would think Dave could get a nice mid-level player for Andrus or Alexei.
Best move: Drafting Beckett and picking up Joyce just as he was exploding. Not trading Hamilton for pennies on the dollar was probably a good move, though he does have a hole to climb out of.
Worst move: Billy Butler is rosterable, but shouldn’t be the starting 1B on any respectable team. The Manny pick definitely hurt.
11. Billy Chapel (47-54-9)
Somehow, some way, this team is three games out of a playoff spot. But I expect that to change. If you look down the roster on the offensive side, you see a lot of good players but no great ones. One guy with double digit HR (Willingham, 10, on DL) and one double digit SB (Victorino, 12) and some solid yet unspectacular OBPs. On the pitching side, there’s Weaver, great closers, and a lot of mediocrity with the loss of BAnderson. Garcia and Hudson have been decent and the recent pickup of Karstens may prove valuable, but all signs point to a fall here. Picking AGordon and RMadson late in the draft were great moves, but its obvious Troy is missing some of the stars he traded off before the season started, namely Felix and JUpton. Three of the four guys he got in return have been awful (Hart, Rios, BAndrson – Weaver good). That said, unlike previous season where depth was an issue, the roster is pretty well full of rosterable players and its clear Troy has a renewed focus and has done well in the waiverwire with Polanco, Damon, Willingham, MHarrison, Lucroy and Karstens (definitely should’ve held on to Boesch though).
Going forward: There are two routes he could take – with eight playoff spots, he can definitely make a run. Trading a closer and/or Weaver could add some major talent and help propel him to success, but dilute his keeper options. The other route is trading off the quality non-keepers here for picks next year and making sure the six guys he keeps are worthwhile. He could stand pat and make the playoffs, but I don’t see a serious playoff run in the future.
Best move: Drafting Gordon, who looks to be playing at a keeper-worthy level.
Worst move: Felix should’ve got him much more than Rios and the injured Anderson.
12. THE GRUMPY MUNCHKINS (48-57-5)
Casten always makes for a fascinating case study in fantasy strategy. At the end of 2009, he had manipulated his roster brilliantly to have a keeper lineup that included Hanley, Pujols, Braun, ARod, and Bruce to start 2010, which seemed to have him set up well for future dominance providing he drafted well. Yet, here we are, again, witnessing a rebuilding effort. No matter what he says, this team doesn’t have the chops to make it this season. The Reyes trade was smart and got him a couple high picks, while he has Cabrera and Pujols to go with McCutch, Heyward, and JJohnson. Nice keepers, a lot of high picks for next year, but this year is a bust with a roster littered with guys you’d never have thought of drafting at the beginning of the year. The good ones are unlikely to continue to perform. It will be interesting to see how well he can position the team for next year’s draft going forward, with a trade of Shield likely to yield something positive. Give him credit for starting the no closer strategy several teams have employed successfully this year. Casten was doing this with success as well, but there simply isn’t enough left to keep those rates at acceptable levels.
Going forward: I would say the best move for Brandon would be to devote himself fully to the rebuilding process and try to pick up parts along the way that can be traded eventually. Next year, his team could be scary good.
Best move: Trading McLellan and Tomlin for Cain – easily – which ultimately brought him Cabrera.
Worst move: Surely, despite his happiness during the draft, he wishes he didn’t draft ARam with his first pick.
13. Colon No Like Salad (45-55-10)
This is perplexing. This team is littered with studs, perhaps moreso than any other team. Fielder, Stanton, Cargo, Cano, Kershaw, Halladay mixed with surprises like Ogando, Colon, Gio, and Gaby. Scherzer, Pagan and Hughes were regrettable early picks, and Maybin, Branyan, Snider, Freeman, Infante, and Happ weren’t great either, but the core is strong and should be a lot better. Russ’s pickups haven’t been particularly good percentage wise, but the good ones have been excellent – namely Colon and Ogando. If you look at his totals, he’s either middle of the road or better in every category and dominant in Ks, HR, and RBIs, making a turnaround likely and providing proof that he’s been the victim of some bad luck. That said, there’s holes that are being filled with less-than-ideal players including SP, OF, SS, RP, and 3B. He could probably stand pat and make the playoffs, where anything goes.
Going forward: Trading a stud could solve a lot of problems. He’s put Fielder out there but he’ll have to get a king’s ransom and most teams have been pretty stingy giving away talent given the scarcity of quality from expansion.
Best move: Ogando and Colon have both been All-Star worthy performers.
Worst move: Russ’s draft was not very good. I had a lot of hope for Scherzer too, but he’s stunk.
14. Urban Achievers (30-70-10)
The only team with literally no shot at this point. Statistically, there’s plenty of time to make up for the gap, but this roster is not deep enough. It’s got some good guys, particularly in the rotation, but it might be time to get first dibs at keepers for next year and picks. The first team to give up always gets a pretty good bounty and Dan stands to get 2012 off to a good start when he decides to call it. There’s not rush though, as every other team is likely to at least give it another month or so. The most painful transaction of the season thus far has been his drop of Morse, who very well could be a keeper by the time its all said and done. His draft was littered with aging mediocrity – Carlos Lee, Posada, Furcal, LaRoche, R & ASoriano, Byrd, Guthrie, AlexGon, Matsui, Wiggy – which wasn’t the best move for an expansion team. Jason’s X-Factor approach probably would’ve ben a better way to go and possibly yielded some keepers.
Going forward: Dump, dump, dump.
Best move: Trading Cahill at his peak was a good move.
Worst move: The keepers were not great, especially compared to Anal’s. And trading your first round pick was ill-advised.
The Commish has overcome the injury to Longo in large part because of the emergence of Assdribble Cabrera, who has been the runaway fantasy MVP (Berkman is in the conversation, but SS is very weak). A-Gon and Granderson have been among the top players the entire season and the imposing offense is solid top to bottom. Pitching is questionable due to a severe lack of consistency. Guys like Hudson, Britton, Lackey, Pavano, and JSanchez make it difficult to know whether you’ll have a 2.00 era or over 4.00. Chacin and Price are high quality. The bullpen leaves much to be desired with Capps and Francisco not necessarily on the firmest ground and the Uehera/Broxton/Kuo combo thoroughly underwhelming. Still, if the pitching can win him two or three categories per week, he’ll win his matchup more often than not with that offense (8-3 in hr, 8-3 in r, 9-2 in rbi).
Going forward: An improvement to the pitching staff would be advisable. If he doesn’t want to take from his offense, dealing Price could net at least two solid top-tier (but not quite keeper) options. There’s no room here to keep a pitcher anyway.
Best move: Other than drafting Asdrubal, trading for Ethier for Stubbs during Andre’s hitting streak was a great move and also brought him a high pick.
Worst move: Not much to criticize here, but with a staff as inconsistent as it is there are too many roster spots devoted to middle relief/speculative closers.
2. Donkey Punchers (62-45-3)
Like Pierce, Chris has made very few roster moves (eight to be exact), yet sits near the top of the standings. Both owners should be applauded for their drafting ability this year. However, unlike Pierce, Chris has loads of power. In fact, even if he just had Berkman, Bautista, Cruz, and Teix (a combined 74- as of a week ago), he’d have more total home runs than SEVEN teams. He also ranks first in runs and is high in OBP and RBIs. His bullpen is killer with Bell, Marmol, Farnsworth, and Nunez, whose 50 saves are only two behind the leader. The other pitching categories are middle of the road, but respectable and would be better if Lilly and Carpenter returned to form. But the staff is solid. Overall, the team is probably the most balanced in the league and stands to make noise come playoff time.
Going forward: Pierce and Chris need to talk. They obviously like their own teams, but Chris has excess power and saves and needs a frontline SP. Pierce has SPs coming out his ass and no power or saves. Lets get these kids together.
Best move: Drafting Berkman in the 16th round. Whoa. Oh and he butt-raped Kyle in the Teix trade too.
Worst move: While the CC trade looked good on the surface, Cahill has stunk and CC is very consistent, while Marmol has been good, but an adventure at times. Of course, he added a first rounder in that trade too, so it wasn’t that bad.
3. Keepin it Real (58-43-9)
What a transformation for Pierce’s squad, who posted the third best record in the first half using only seven transactions. Whether you consider apathy or confidence in his drafted roster, you can’t argue the results, which are a refreshing change for the habitual bottom-dweller. There’s speed all over this team with Tabata, Pedroia, Ichiro, and Ells all totaling over a dozen SBs, which easily leads the league. His run total is top 5 and OBP is middling, but HR and RBI totals are among the worst in the league, making you wonder if this is a smoke and mirror type team that will eventually fade away. Meanwhile, he has no closer, and thus no saves, but his starters are really keeping this club afloat with Lester, Hanson, Pineda, Cain, Lee, Anibal, and Garza formulating the best staff in High & Tight. He’s only 4-6-1 in the K category and 5-4-2 in QS, but that will go up and the rates (9-2-0 for both) should be consistent. It will be Pierce’s offense that makes or breaks the team. Wright and Panda’s return would help.
Going forward: May want to think about dealing some of that speed and pitching to sure up other areas like power and saves.
Best move: Drafting in rounds 11-14 (Garza, Anibal, CJ Wilson, Pineda)
Worst move: Not making moves. DJennings isn’t good enough to have warranted a roster spot this long and Brandon Lyon has occupied the DL spot far too long.
4. Montezuma’s Revenge (54-44-12)
No one is more surprised than I am to see my team ranked this high, as injuries have plagued the team for most of the year (seven DLed players at one point). But I’ve managed to utilize my 32 transactions in a way that has kept me afloat. The offense has been anemic with a record below .500 in every offensive category, but still has some valuable parts with Pence and Upton among the top 50 players. I do give myself credit for overcoming the injury to the one true ace, JJ, and filling the staff with solid, consistent contributors who have allowed me to be one of two teams to never lose in a single category with a 9-0-2 record in QS (Angry Pirates has a clean plate with saves, 10-0-1). The key has been hedging inconsistent K guys (like Volquez and Holland) with consistent rate pitchers (IKennedy, Bedard, Jurrjens, Kuroda, Buchholz, McCarthy, and Stauffer). Having one closer (following the RFranklin, FRodney, JMcGee disasters) has hurt overall, but has allowed me to pick up wins when matched up against closerless teams. With 12 ties, this team could easily be higher in the standings or much lower.
Going forward: The offense, namely Dunn, Alvarez, Sizemore, Hosmer, Rasmus, and Santana, needs to produce to give me a chance to win. Trading Posey once a team drops out of the race could help here.
Best move: Grabbing Hosmer, who looks like a long-term keeper, and drafting Jurrjens in the 24th and Bedard in the 17th.
Worst move: It’s looking more and more like I’ll regret filling my hole at catcher with Santana, who is good but Lind has been amazing. Fucking Scott Cousins. Oh and the Ian Stewart/Pedro Alvarez strategy to 3B hasn’t quite worked out as planned. And I probably should’ve kept Haren over Jeter. Oh and Dunn is a piece of crap. But can’t whine too much with a record like that.
5. Angry Pirates (54-48-8)
The record is pretty surprising given that Kyle has been part of four trades and has seemingly been on the losing side of all of them. Sure he rid himself of Morales and got Teix to begin the season, but he also lost Soria, Latos, and his second pick next year and ultimately traded Teix (Lohse, Arrieta, and fourth rounder) and really only got Holliday and Moreland to show for it. The aforementioned Stubbs-Ethier trade didn’t work out (and he lost his first rounder). Meanwhile, he gave up CSantana, Phillips, Upton, DBrown and two third rounders for Felix Hernandez (Brantley has been OK, got a sixth rounder back). He’s worked around that with a lights out bullpen and strong pitching from Hamels, Felix, and Baker. But this team needs some work to keep up this playoff-bound pace. Moreland, Beckham, AJackson, DYoung, and Brantley are all starting lineup fixtures that are best left for a bench (Moreland more of a UTIL type). Meanwhile, the back end of the rotation has a lot of question marks with Chatwood, Wake, EJax, Wade Davis, and Matusz.
Going forward: To improve depth, a trade of Holliday or Hamels could do wonders and solidify some of the question marks. And with a number of teams looking for bullpen help, trading one of the closers could yield some quality players and still allow Kyle to compete in the category.
Best move: Neil Walker seemed like a reach in the fourth round this year, but has proven to be very valuable, while late draft picks Hanrahan and Walden are completely legit.
Worst move: Other than the trades? Delmon Young in the second round is painful. But the real issue will be next season when he doesn’t have a pick until the fifth round.
6. One Nut Wonders (55-50-5)
Always an adventure, Jason is never afraid to trade anyone and has been part of seven trades so far (with a trade proposal-to-completion ratio no doubt below 1%) with mixed results. Certainly the Morales trades was tough to swallow, but made easier with finding Mike Morse on the waiver wire. The Reyes – Hanley trade may be one he regrets, especially with the two high picks he had to give up, but did a good job getting Lind for one of his two top tier catchers. His draft has produced some extreme highs (Quentin, Montero) and extreme lows (EdwinEnc, BMyers) and after all the roster turnover, he’s left with an offense that is superb (though, perhaps better on paper) and a pitching staff with a lot of holes, with Wandy about the only guy who could be considered solid to this point (though Latos and Morrow certainly have the ability).
Going forward: Another trade or two (or twelve) are no doubt in Jason’s future, so this roster could look very different in a few weeks. But pitching is badly needed to balance this team. Or else he’s going to have a lot of weeks like the last one, where he’s left with his hand on his crank, dreaming of Braun, Morse, and Lind and his dominant offensive week, while his team goes 4-6.
Best move: Morse and Lind pick ups, closer drafting.
Worst move: Drafting Edwin “I’m about to blow your mind” Encarnacion.
7. Anal Hershiser (53-50-7)
Proof that an expansion team could join the league and put together a quality group of keepers (Verlander, Bruce, Cain, Haren, Konerko, Rasmus) without a confusing expansion draft. That was followed with a solid, albeit unspectacular, draft and some good moves on the waiver wire (Phil Humber) and one bad one (dropping Stauffer), and one bad trade (Tomlin and McClellan for Cain). All in all, a pretty good start that leave Anal in the position to get one of the eight playoff spots. The team is balanced enough to maintain the pace, but there are some contributors playing over their heads at the moment that will have to keep it up – Dickey, Livan, Marquis, Moseley, Humber, Turner, and Helton to name a few. But if Swisher, Cuddyer, and Cueto live up to their potential in the second half, this team could have a shot.
Going forward: The infield could use help with neither JTurner nor Cuddyer everyday starter-worthy. Verlander could command a lot of good players that could boost this area.
Best move: Other than solid keeper picking, Humber has been one of the best stories of the first half.
Worst move: Boy, I bet you wish you didn’t drop Bud Norris. And, again, Cain was worth more than that.
8. Ring of Fire (51-52-7)
Unfamiliar territory for the three-time former champion, who has faced some difficult match ups as of late and probably is better than where he sit in the standings (he’s top three in all total offensive categories except SB). His selections off the waiver wire have been spot on, with such standouts as Avila (who needs Mauer?), Espinosa, Norris, Salas, Melancon, and Vogelsong. And while Kemp has rebounded nicely and Ortiz decided to play the first couple months, Youk’s production isn’t quite where it has been in the past and Votto doesn’t have the power numbers you’d expect. Dagan’s patience with CPena has paid off. Lowrie served his purpose for a few weeks but came back to Earth and injuries to Mauer and Ike have hurt, while no one has been more frustrating to own than Ubaldo. But the staff is solid with Hellboy and Romero proving to be good picks and his bullpen overcame the lost of Thornton with Salas a key speculative add. It will be interesting to see if the pitchers can maintain this performance and match the quality of the offense, which has not yet been full force. Could make a serious second half run.
Going forward: Shortstop is a problem, with Dee Gordon not the answer and Lowrie only mediocre/injured. May be able to get something for Avila. Maybe package with Ubaldo to grab a top tier SP that is performing like one. Trades are fun Dagan, try one.
Best move: Vogelsong pickup. Crazy numbers. Sustainable? That’s another question.
Worst move: Drafting Brett Cecil again was odd, the Thornton pick certainly hurt.
9. Moose is Loose (50-52-8)
Actually, Brian is doing pretty good considering some of the challenges, which began with Greinke attempt at an NBA career. The underperformance of keepers Morneau, Uggla, and Choo are enough to kill any team, but the general suckiness of high picks Dempster (recently bounced back), Danks, and Pierre have also proven challenging. While other picks like Kubel, Braden, DLee, Richard, TWood, Thome, and Westbrook have all been more or less worthless. That said, Smoak has proven to be a great pick and his bullpen picking (KRod, Putz, Fuentes, and League) was superb. Melky has helped as well, but all in all the waiver wire has not helped. Moose is pretty much .500 across all categories with the exception of saves and steals, which cancel eachother out. The success of the team will hinge on getting contributions from those who have disappointed in the first half. If they do, Brian’s .500 play to this point will prove to be extremely valuable and most assuredly place last year’s champ back in playoff contention.
Going forward: Hold tight and hope for a turnaround or trade off assets while they’re still some speculative value? The answer probably lies somewhere in between.
Best move: Refusing offers for Tulo, drafting League in the 22nd.
Worst move: When needed most, the waiver wire pickups just have not been helpful.
10. Cowhide Joyride (49-54-7)
Dave had an up and down draft with very bright spots like Beckett, Andrus, Storen, Beltran, and LoMo and some big misses like Butler, Manny, Daisuke, Barton and Drew. Injuries to Hamilton and Zimmerman, along Reynolds slow start, sent him into a bit of a early season tailspin. Things have turned around recently and his team is healthy. There’s certainly enough talent here, but I wonder weather his pitching strategy will work with only seven starters and five relievers – two of whom are setup men, albeit good ones. He’s played the waiver wire relatively well, sending off players that aren’t showing much reboundability and grabbing guys like Joyce, RRoberts, and Wells. The roster is pretty well set up to make a serious run if healthy.
Going forward: A quality starting pitcher would probably help. With some of the shortstops currently starting in this league, I would think Dave could get a nice mid-level player for Andrus or Alexei.
Best move: Drafting Beckett and picking up Joyce just as he was exploding. Not trading Hamilton for pennies on the dollar was probably a good move, though he does have a hole to climb out of.
Worst move: Billy Butler is rosterable, but shouldn’t be the starting 1B on any respectable team. The Manny pick definitely hurt.
11. Billy Chapel (47-54-9)
Somehow, some way, this team is three games out of a playoff spot. But I expect that to change. If you look down the roster on the offensive side, you see a lot of good players but no great ones. One guy with double digit HR (Willingham, 10, on DL) and one double digit SB (Victorino, 12) and some solid yet unspectacular OBPs. On the pitching side, there’s Weaver, great closers, and a lot of mediocrity with the loss of BAnderson. Garcia and Hudson have been decent and the recent pickup of Karstens may prove valuable, but all signs point to a fall here. Picking AGordon and RMadson late in the draft were great moves, but its obvious Troy is missing some of the stars he traded off before the season started, namely Felix and JUpton. Three of the four guys he got in return have been awful (Hart, Rios, BAndrson – Weaver good). That said, unlike previous season where depth was an issue, the roster is pretty well full of rosterable players and its clear Troy has a renewed focus and has done well in the waiverwire with Polanco, Damon, Willingham, MHarrison, Lucroy and Karstens (definitely should’ve held on to Boesch though).
Going forward: There are two routes he could take – with eight playoff spots, he can definitely make a run. Trading a closer and/or Weaver could add some major talent and help propel him to success, but dilute his keeper options. The other route is trading off the quality non-keepers here for picks next year and making sure the six guys he keeps are worthwhile. He could stand pat and make the playoffs, but I don’t see a serious playoff run in the future.
Best move: Drafting Gordon, who looks to be playing at a keeper-worthy level.
Worst move: Felix should’ve got him much more than Rios and the injured Anderson.
12. THE GRUMPY MUNCHKINS (48-57-5)
Casten always makes for a fascinating case study in fantasy strategy. At the end of 2009, he had manipulated his roster brilliantly to have a keeper lineup that included Hanley, Pujols, Braun, ARod, and Bruce to start 2010, which seemed to have him set up well for future dominance providing he drafted well. Yet, here we are, again, witnessing a rebuilding effort. No matter what he says, this team doesn’t have the chops to make it this season. The Reyes trade was smart and got him a couple high picks, while he has Cabrera and Pujols to go with McCutch, Heyward, and JJohnson. Nice keepers, a lot of high picks for next year, but this year is a bust with a roster littered with guys you’d never have thought of drafting at the beginning of the year. The good ones are unlikely to continue to perform. It will be interesting to see how well he can position the team for next year’s draft going forward, with a trade of Shield likely to yield something positive. Give him credit for starting the no closer strategy several teams have employed successfully this year. Casten was doing this with success as well, but there simply isn’t enough left to keep those rates at acceptable levels.
Going forward: I would say the best move for Brandon would be to devote himself fully to the rebuilding process and try to pick up parts along the way that can be traded eventually. Next year, his team could be scary good.
Best move: Trading McLellan and Tomlin for Cain – easily – which ultimately brought him Cabrera.
Worst move: Surely, despite his happiness during the draft, he wishes he didn’t draft ARam with his first pick.
13. Colon No Like Salad (45-55-10)
This is perplexing. This team is littered with studs, perhaps moreso than any other team. Fielder, Stanton, Cargo, Cano, Kershaw, Halladay mixed with surprises like Ogando, Colon, Gio, and Gaby. Scherzer, Pagan and Hughes were regrettable early picks, and Maybin, Branyan, Snider, Freeman, Infante, and Happ weren’t great either, but the core is strong and should be a lot better. Russ’s pickups haven’t been particularly good percentage wise, but the good ones have been excellent – namely Colon and Ogando. If you look at his totals, he’s either middle of the road or better in every category and dominant in Ks, HR, and RBIs, making a turnaround likely and providing proof that he’s been the victim of some bad luck. That said, there’s holes that are being filled with less-than-ideal players including SP, OF, SS, RP, and 3B. He could probably stand pat and make the playoffs, where anything goes.
Going forward: Trading a stud could solve a lot of problems. He’s put Fielder out there but he’ll have to get a king’s ransom and most teams have been pretty stingy giving away talent given the scarcity of quality from expansion.
Best move: Ogando and Colon have both been All-Star worthy performers.
Worst move: Russ’s draft was not very good. I had a lot of hope for Scherzer too, but he’s stunk.
14. Urban Achievers (30-70-10)
The only team with literally no shot at this point. Statistically, there’s plenty of time to make up for the gap, but this roster is not deep enough. It’s got some good guys, particularly in the rotation, but it might be time to get first dibs at keepers for next year and picks. The first team to give up always gets a pretty good bounty and Dan stands to get 2012 off to a good start when he decides to call it. There’s not rush though, as every other team is likely to at least give it another month or so. The most painful transaction of the season thus far has been his drop of Morse, who very well could be a keeper by the time its all said and done. His draft was littered with aging mediocrity – Carlos Lee, Posada, Furcal, LaRoche, R & ASoriano, Byrd, Guthrie, AlexGon, Matsui, Wiggy – which wasn’t the best move for an expansion team. Jason’s X-Factor approach probably would’ve ben a better way to go and possibly yielded some keepers.
Going forward: Dump, dump, dump.
Best move: Trading Cahill at his peak was a good move.
Worst move: The keepers were not great, especially compared to Anal’s. And trading your first round pick was ill-advised.
Saturday, April 2, 2011
2011 Draft Review
By Adam Leech
Great draft everyone. Changing to 14 teams might be the smartest thing the league has done in quite a while (well, since changing W to QS a year ago, anyways). Not only did the two new guys hold their own, but the late rounds were as gripping as ever. It was nerve-racking and I’ve never felt worse about a team I just drafted, but I think that’s a good thing. This season will reveal who knows their stuff and who does not. Running to the waiver wire won’t be nearly as fruitful as in the past, as you’ve probably already noticed. As frustrating as the draft was, it was equally as compelling.
Now to the review. For those of you just joining us, I write a draft review every year, to get the season going on the right foot. Personal jabs aside, it’s all in good fun and feel free to jab back, criticize, etc. I just call em as I see em.
Round 7
Best pick: SP Francisco Liriano (Urban) – Tough to give this one to the top pick, but given the run on pitching, this was clearly the right move. Liriano, though a bit of an injury risk, is the most complete player on the board who can contribute mightily to four categories. Not to mention, a possible keeper.
Runner (Best): 3B Pedro Alvarez (Montezumas) – Even if I do say so myself. Seriously, I would be a complete fraud if I did not pat myself on the back for getting the player I had ranked highest. He might not be a complete product, but I’d be shocked if he’s not a keeper by year’s end. Consolatory ups to Casten as well for filling a shallow 3B position with Aramis Ramirez, who is 32, had a big second half, is healthy and can fill a box score.
Worst pick: OF Ichiro Suzuki (Keeping it Real) – Sure, he sounds good, but follow me here. Off the top of your head, how many categories did Ichiro contribute to last year? In our league, the answer is one. His .359 obp last year is only slightly above average; his career.376 is nice and he’s had good run numbers in the past, but they’re not likely to be replicated at the age of 37 on that shitty Mariner team. You’re basically getting Coco Crisp, who went 15 rounds later.
Runner (Worst): 1B Billy Butler (Cowhide) – Let’s play this game again. How many categories did Big Bill contribute to last year? One! His .388 obp is great, but 77 runs, 15 hrs, and 78 rbis in 595 abs? His power numbers were better the year before, but his OBP was 20 points lower. Not great value for the first base position. Dave might as well have drafted Daric Barton... Oh wait, he did. In the 20th round.
X-Factor: OF Carlos Quentin (One Nut) – If he stays healthy, Jason might have the best player in this draft and a valuable keeper. If not, he wasted a high pick and should’ve known better.
Round 8
Best pick: SP Shaun Marcum (Donkey) – Again, with the pitching flying off the board (five at this point), Chris got number two on my list. Other than a small concern about his health, there is no doubt he will outproduce his already stellar numbers, based solely on being in the NL with regular games against the Astros and Pirates. The drop-off to the next tier of pitcher was a significant one, in my opinion.
Runner (Best): OF Bobby Abreu (Ring of Fire) – Sure, he’s old, but he’ll also be DHing a lot this year and he’s one of the most reliable players in baseball in terms of health. It’s not easy to pass on the upside of guys like Lind or DYoung at this point, but taking the guy whose solid across the board was the correct move for Dagan, who reconciles with a long-time binky.
Worst: C Jorge Posada (Urban) – Eww. Look, he’s not bad. Even at 39, he has some promise based on his better than average OBP and the fact that he’ll be DH most of the year. But the second round? I’d take a shot at Napoli, who went with the next pick, or cozy up to Geovany and his .393 obp and 17 hrs in 322 abs. Jorgie’s average draft position in Yahoo leagues was 186, which works out to midway in the 14th round in our league. So, yeah, this was way too early.
Runner (Worst): CL Brian Wilson (Anal) – There I go, picking on the new guys. Never one to condone early drafting closers early, drafting one with an injury is completely off limits. I loved having Wilson on my team last year, but drafting closers this high rarely works out to real gains. Saves is one category. Sure, multiple appearances adds up over the course of a week, but it’s hardly reliable and is never the equivalent of more than one really good start from an SP minus the QS. And Nefalti in the next round? Give me upside/safe SP combo (BMorrow & TLilly or CBuchholz & RDempster) and wait for the JValverde, KRod, MThornton, Axford, Nathan run.
X-Factor: 1B/OF Adam Lind (Montezumas) – Few players have as high a ceiling (93/35/114/.370 in 09) and as a low of a floor (platoon).
Round 9
Best: C Geovany Soto (Grumpy) – The drop-off in the upper tier of catchers is steep. Napoli and Soto provide a bit of transition that is appealing before you get into question mark guys like MMontero and the aforementioned Posada. Soto provides a unique attribute among catchers: an amazing obp (.393) to go along with some intriguing power. Calculate 550 abs (unlikely, but for discussion’s sake) with his 2010 ratios and you have a 80 runs 29 hrs 91 rbi monster who vaults to the top tier.
Runner (Best): TIE SP Ryan Dempster (Moose) and SP Ted Lilly (Donkey) – These guys were very high on my list because of their reliability and consistency. One provides more K upside and the other better ratios. Either way, they will play key roles in hedging against some of the more volatile pitchers taken later in the draft. In Donkey’s case, he’s a key part to one of, if not the, best staffs in the league. For Moose, Demps fits in well with Billingsley and Danks, who are similar, consistent pitchers.
Worst: OF Angel Pagan (Sober Valley) – Tough call here in a pretty good round, but Pagan’s average draft position (equivalent to the 12th round) and the quality of OFs available (Swisher, Guerrero, Hunter – Pierre and Bourn, if your looking for speed) gives Pagan the nod here. He was solid across the board last year and 37 steals were nice, but there’s no track record here and I wonder if he will disappear into mediocrity again. I imagine he would’ve been there in a few rounds.
Runner (Worst): OF Nick Markakis (Keepin) – Here’s an example of where ADP (9nd round) is pretty useless, or harmful in this case. Markakis has an undeserving reputation as a solid fantasy contributor, when in reality his numbers have fallen across the board for two years, despite his youth (27). That .370 obp was nice, but the 79/12/60 in 629 abs was on the same level as David Murphy (ADP: 18th round, went undrafted) in 200 less abs. The Orioles lineup looks better, so that might help.
X-Factor – SP Brandon Morrow (One Nut) – A personal favorite of mine, Morrow’s insane 11 Ks per nine make him very intriguing, but those ratios are tough, as is the inconsistency. Not bad as a no. 3, but there’s some serious risk in Jason’s staff (Wandy, Myers, Peavy), so this pick could make or break.
Round 10
Best: SP John Danks (Moose) – Brian grabbed a good one here. Solid, not spectacular, everywhere, which is a good place to focus at this point in the draft. There’s plenty of opportunity to take chances later. The pitchers in this round taken after Danks all pose questions (Bumgarner, Volquez, and Cahill).
Runner (Best): OF Nick Swisher (Anal) – Again, solid here. Swisher is not flashy, but safe and will contribute in four categories. I had him as my sixth ranked OF but he went 12th at the position. At 30, he could even improve. Oh, and his wife is hot.
Worst: C Matt Wieters (Sober) – Hard to get behind a guy whose career highlight is being the first round pick of Casten without playing a major league game. His returns since that time have been less than appealing and he’s shown no real sign of growing on that. He went after his ADP, but if I was going to go for a young guy with no track record, I’d have waited for Arencibia, who wasn’t even drafted. Maybe this is the year, but I wouldn’t want to wait.
Runner (Worst): OF Vernon Wells (Billy) – Amazing that I ranked this guy as the best pick in the round he was drafted last year by Dave – the 24th. Call me skeptical, but I don’t see him living up to this ranking. The 31 hr was great last year, but 79 r and 88 rbi was just OK and .331 obp is shitty. All in all, a good round. Bumgarner (Cowhide) and Walker (Pirates) were reaches here as well, but I expect both to be more valuable than Wells.
X-Factor: 2B Gordon Beckham (One Nut) – Theme going here with Jason and X-Factors, huh? Go big or go home? If these guys don’t produce, Jason is going to be a whiny bitch this year. But if they do produce, he could dominate with the keepers he already had.
Round 11
Best: OF Vladmir Guerrero (Anal) – I expect a beast similar to last year, which is great value here. Expecting 115 rbis may be unreasonable, but over 100 in what might be a great lineup is entirely possible. Four category producer 58 players in? Yeah, I’d take that.
Runner (Best): SP Brett Myers (One Nut) – I don’t love Myers, but this is really low for a guy who did what he did last year (24 qs, 180 k, 3.14 era, 1.24 whip). It’s easy to forget how good this guy was before he got injured and started slapping his wife around, but he was an ace in Philly too. Houston is a small stadium and he could certainly digress, but good value here.
Worst: RP Francisco Cordero (Billy) – Not a bad place for a closer, but not a guy whose whip was 1.43, is in his mid 30s and has a hurling hot shot phenom behind him. I had seven or so guys above Cordero at this point, so I didn’t like this for Troy, especially with some big holes remaining elsewhere.
Runner (Worst): SP Matt Garza (Keepin) – I really don’t like him this year. He may be in the NL now, but its not a great park for flyball pitchers and he lacked the dominating qualities in 2010 that he had the year prior. Tampa seemed more than willing to deal him off, which makes me wonder if this is going to implode.
X-Factor: TIE SP Jordan Zimmerman (Donkey) and SP Jhoulys Chacin (Prestige) – High K young guys who could blossom and prove to be extremely valuable, or they could muddle their way through a innings capped-year with a 4.60 era and a dozen quality starts.
Round 12
Best: 2B Aaron Hill (Grumpy) – Even in a crappy year for Hill, he still smacked 26 homers with a respectable 70 r and 68 rbi. Just the scent of the incredible 2009 season he had makes this pick by Casten extremely valuable. I’m not one to look too closely at BABIP, but Hill’s was a ridiculous .196, which would be difficult to replicate, and explains the nauseating .270 obp last year. His obp can reasonably be expected to reach the .330-.340 range, which is just fine at this position and at this point in the draft. Nice grab.
Runner OF Adam Jones (Prestige) – Nice place to take a chance on a 25-year-old who has 30/30 potential, but 20/20 would be just fine as well. After this, the number of OFs with decent power are almost all over the age of 35.
Worst: 2B Howie Kendrick (Billy) – Another guy who is a consideration in batting average leagues, but doesn’t provide a whole lot of value in this league. The 75 rbis is nice, but not terribly difficult to replace. A speed guy with upside, like Figgins, would’ve made more sense here.
Runner (Worst): OF Jason Bay (Donkey) – Not an awful pick, but the fact that he’s already injured doesn’t bode well. And even when he was healthy last year, that ballpark really hurt his numbers. Tough to see him suddenly getting back to the production he had with the Sox. Again, with essentially 18 rounds in the books, this isn’t a bad chance, but there weren’t many bad picks in this round.
X-Factor: OF Grady Sizemore (Montezumas) – Lots of question on health and whether he looks at all like the Grady of old when he returns. If he does, this is a guy who was a top 10 overall pick not long ago and could be a game changer.
Round 13
Best: SP Ervin Santana (Urban) – A great time to take a guy who K’d more than 200 not long ago and could easily get there again. Showing off a new cutter, I expect he will be very productive in all four categories and be extremely valuable as a middle rotation guy.
Runner (Best): SP Javier Vazquez (Donkey) – Another great time to take a high upside starter. Back in the NL, in Florida, away from New York, he won’t get back to 2009, but he won’t repeat last year’s awful numbers either.
Worst: SP Jaime Garcia (Billy) – Tough to fault Troy here, but there were a lot of solid picks in this round, so I went for the guy most likely to disappoint in my mind. Starter performance fluctuates greatly year to year and I expect Garcia won’t see the same success.
Runner (Worst): RP Matt Thornton (Ring) – Again, tough to find fault here. I just like KRod, Huston, Nathan, and Broxton to a guy whose subjected to the whims of the Great and Powerful Oz, with a fireballing youngster nipping at his heals.
X-Factor: 2B Brian Roberts (Montezuma) – This guy plummeted because of injury concerns, which are completely valid. But the pay-off for this guy could be huge.
Round 14
Best: C Miguel Montero (One Nut) – Like this pick because the remaining options present serious question marks. Montero started great last year before he was injured early on and was productive upon return. Will be a solid producer this year who won’t hurt anywhere.
Runner (Best): RP Ryan Franklin (Montezumas) – The last closer taken of five taken in the round (Broxton, Nunez, Putz, and Bailey) may be the safest due to job security and health. Not flashy, doesn’t K a lot but a solid no. 2 closer. Unfortunately for me, he’s my no.1
Worst: RP Leo Nunez (Donkey) – Just don’t see him keeping this job long. His own coach took him out of the role last year, only to put him back. There’s other option in the Marlins pen and I suspect they will go to them soon. Definitely not better than Putz or Franklin, not even Hanrahan.
Runner (Worst): SP Johan Santana (Billy) – The fact that he is out until June is obviously a knock against him, but the other thing to consider is the fact that Johan is not elite anymore and the likelihood of his team competing enough to keep him active for the fantasy playoffs is not good. I could see taking a chance like this if four or five rounds, but not with guys like GFloyd, EJackson, CPavano, and Zambrano there for the taking.
X-Factor: SP Michael Pineda (Keepin) – Could be a huge contributor like JGarcia was last year, only with more Ks. But and innings cap is likely, he probably won’t make it through six innings a lot, and he’s a young pitcher, so inconsistency is likely.
Round 15
Best: OF Travis Snider (Sober) – Great time to go big and Snider could be huge this year and for many years to come. Fits in well in the utility slot, which is where he is.
Runner (Best): SP Carl Pavano (Grumpy) – Also a good time to grab a solid rate guy with QS. Interesting tactic by Casten, who is obviously hoping to pound opponents into submission with counting SP stats. I for one never sacrifice a category, but there’s also teams in the league with only one closer, which is even worse. Anyhow, Pavano is safe and will offset what I expect to be awful rates from JDe La Rosa.
Worst: SP Bronson Arroyo (Keepin) – He had a nice year in 2010, but it was terribly inconsistent. As long as he’s in that park, it will be difficult to love Arroyo at this point in the draft, especially with guys like Pavano, EJax, Baker, Cueto, Lackey available. If you’re going to take a risk, go with upside.
Runner (Worst): OF Alfonso Soriano (Urban) – Anyone whose owned him knows the pain he causes. Like Arroyo, the end results are decent, but the road to get to them is hardly worth it. Not bad as a bench guy, but probably could’ve been had in four rounds.
X-Factor (One Nut): 3B Edwin Encarnacion (One Nut) – I almost chose EE as the worst, but I held back and placed him here instead. Jason said he was going to blow our minds and he did, but I don’t give him credit for it. The whole point of having sleepers is that they’re left hibernating until the late rounds, where they’re scooped up and provide starter’s value at the cost of a waiver-level pick, while providing the fantasy player the opportunity to address other positions of need. Instead, One Nut stared deeply into that 21 hr in 332 ab stat and couldn’t hold back his nut any longer, then blew it all over our minds while the next third baseman doesn’t go for almost three rounds (not counting geriatrics like Chipper). EE’s ADP had him going about three rounds later. That said, he could have a great season and make Jason look intelligent. Jason should change his team name to the X Factors.
Round 16
Best: 1B/OF Luke Scott (Anal) – Really an underrated guy because he can be streaky, but if you project last year’s number over 550 abs (a distinct possibility this year) and you have 86 r 33 hr and 89 rbi to go along with that pretty .368 obp. Nice spot to grab him. Perhaps this will be the first year in the last five that he isn’t placed on the waiver wire.
Runner (Best): RP Brandon Lyon (Keepin) – The number of players with closing jobs and very little competition around him is limited at this point, so grabbing Lyon here was a nice move by Pierce.
Worst: RP Fernando Rodney (Montezumas) – The leash is short to begin with and Rodney could not have been worse last year. There’s a chance he stays on and picks up all those Angel saves, but they are remote and this was a desperation pick by yours truly.
Runner (Worst): SP Clayton Richard (Moose) – Ugly whip, mediocre strikeout rate, and more intriguing options on the board.
X-Factor: 1B/OF Michael Morse – See Encarnacion, Edwin. Remember Shelton, Chris. Lots to like, plenty to fear.
Round 17
Best: OF Jose Tabata (Keepin) – A speedy 22-year-old leadoff guy with a .346 obp hitting in front of an emerging Walker, McCutchen, Alvarez heart of the order? Sign me up. Could be one of the steals of the draft.
Runner (Best) RP Craig Kimbrel (Sober) – When selecting closers at this point in the draft, a smart strategy is to go for guys who may be part of a closer-by-committee but have enough K/9 upside to make it worth it to roster them even without saves. Kimbrel’s K rate was an mind-boggling 17.4 per inning.
Worst: C Carlos Ruiz (Anal) – There’s just not a lot here. Sure, he had a great OBP and a good ball park, but at this point I think it’s worth taking a shot. Arencibia, maybe Salty, Lucroy, or Conger? I just don’t think this guy is rosterable and there were still seven rounds to go.
Runner (Worst): RP Rafeal Soraino (Urban) – (Pssst… This league doesn’t count holds. Pass it on.)
X-Factor – TIE SP Jake Peavy (One Nut) and SP Eric Bedard (Montezumas) – Both are injury risks and both have tremendous upside of a keeper-worthy pitcher.
Round 18
Best: Ian Stewart (Montezumas) – A 25-year-old third baseman with gigantic power potential playing a shallow position, in Colorado, and drafted in the 18th round? Yes, there’s plenty to like here.
Runner (Best): Will Venebale (Billy) – Exactly the kind of player to draft in this area. He had 13 hrs and 29 steals in 392 abs last year. Imagine what he could do with 200 more abs.
Worst: Dominic Brown (Angry) – Given the fact that he was likely in a platoon situation to begin with, I didn’t really like Brown this year even prior to breaking his hand. Maybe he’ll be productive around the last couple months of the season, but my guess is he won’t be on your roster.
Runner (Worst): RA Dickey (Prestige) – Just don’t trust him. That’s it.
X-Factor: RP Brad Lidge (One Nut) – I’m doing this more or less to prove a point. Taking chances is a good thing when hedged with consistent, healthy producers. Jason took a chance here, knowing the MRI was on Tuesday, and then he was gone for 3-6, but maybe longer. Mr. X Factor got burned here.
Round 19
Best: C Kurt Suzuki (Keepin) – There’s something to be said for a catcher that plays almost every day with a solid fantasy output. Of course that something could be ouch if he’s run into the ground like Russell Martin was. Regardless, with only so many good catchers, Suzuki is a solid find in the late rounds.
Runner (Best): SP Scott Baker (Angry) – Baker is the pick most likely to outproduce his draft position in this round. Anal’s pick, Cueto, could as well, but a forearm injury could be nothing or it could mean Tommy John surgery is in his near future. Baker has a bad 2010 but 7.8 K/9 is solid and he has produce solid WHIP in years past. Combined with a pitcher’s park, a nice selection.
Worst: 3B Omar Infante (Sober) – If I had put “UT” before his name, I wouldn’t really have an issue with this pick. A bench player with position eligibility basically everywhere, hitting in front of guys like Hanley and Stanton can be extremely valuable. But Infante should never be drafted as a starter, certainly not at 3B. Not sure there were a lot of compelling options at the hot corner (Chris Johnson or Freese are decent), but this is an obvious weak spot that should’ve been addressed sooner.
Runner: RP Jonny Venters (Ring) – Not an awful pick, I just think Kimbrel was the guy to own. Would’ve grabbed an SP here.
X-Factor: SP Homer Bailey (Prestige) – If he can produce like he did in the second half, he’d be a great pick here.
Round 20
Best: 2B Ryan Raburn (One Nut) – Love this pick with the 2B eligibility and the promise of a full season of playing time. Nice guy to have on the bench filling in with Utley’s injury and GBeckham’s uncertainty.
Runner: TIE SP JA Happ (Sober) and SP Jeff Niemann (Ring) – Good value here with both guys. Pretty solid contributors in all categories, who can go on nice hot streaks. Niemann was one of the best in the AL in the first half last year.
Worst: OF Bryce Harper (Keepin) – I never condone holding onto a minor leaguer and having him occupy a roster spot for an uncertain period of time, just for the outside shot that they come up after a month and produce immediately. Sometimes it works out, like with Russ’s pick up of Mike Stanton last year, but most of the time they end up like Russ’s Desmond Jennings pick. With basically no possibility of Harper coming up before September and the extremely low probability of him contributing enough to prove his worth as keeper for Pierce, this pick made absolutely no sense. Cut him now and cut your losses.
Runner (Worst): SS Mike Aviles (Donkey) – Not bad as back up to both SS and 3B, but he should not be an everyday player in an OBP league.
X-Factor: OF Nate McLouth (Prestige) – Great pick here. If last year proves just to be an outlier and he goes back to a 20/20 guy, it will make Lars look very smart. Or he could be benched and on waivers in two weeks.
Round 21
Best: OF Josh Willingham (Ring) – Sort of a classic Dagan-like guy with solid potential and good OBP (.389 last year, .367 career). He’s one of those guys that used to be found on the waiver wire, but not with 14 teams now. He could play a key role on this team.
Runner (Best): SP Chris Young (Donkey) – Remember when he has a 3.12 era, 1.10 whip and 167 Ks? Yeah, that was four years ago. But it’s a nice chance to take at this point. If he’s healthy, he’ll be extremely valuable.
Worst: SP John Garland (Keepin) – Not only is he mediocre, he’s injured.
Runner (Worst): SP Brian Duensing (One Nut) – Just mediocre.
X-Factor: RP Jake McGee (Montezumas) – If he holds the closer role for most the year, he could be huge. Or he could just be a set-up guy.
Round 22
Best: OF Magglio Ordonez (Montezumas) – Considering how productive he was before he broke his ankle last year, he was a steal here, even at the age of 37. Hitting between MCabrera and VMart is a nice place to be.
Runner: 3B/OF Alex Gordon (Billy) – Nice place to take a shot at this post-post-hype sleeper. With third base eligibility and the three-spot in the Royals line-up, he could actually pay-off. Staying healthy has never been easy, but not that much of a sacrifice if he flops again.
Worst: OF Desmond Jennings (Keepin) – I find it difficult to criticize picks at this juncture of the draft because, in most cases, its worth a shot no matter who you take. But Pierce is making it easy. The only thing you can do to hurt yourself at this point in the draft is to take occupy a non-DL spot with someone who won’t play. Pierce has done it twice, despite having a pretty good team that could compete this year.
Runner (Worst): 2B Dustin Ackley (Anal) – Same deal. I expect him to be one who contributes immediately when he is called up, but who knows when that will be?
X-Factor: SP Daisuke Matsuzaka (Cowhide) – A great chance to take here, considering his productivity two years ago. Dave will know early on if its going to be another one of those years.
Round 23
Best: SP Derek Lowe (One Nut) – Not a great year last year, but he could easily turn it around and be a solid mid-rotation find on a team full of risks and injuries.
Runner (Best): RP Kyle Farnsworth (Donkey) – Likely to get the first shot at saves. Why not take a shot that he holds on to the job?
Worst: RP Brian Fuentes (Moose) – Proved last year he’s got no business being a closer on a major league team. May get early saves, but indications are that ABailey is fine and could be back in a couple weeks. Then its back to the waiver wire for Fuentes.
Runner (Worst): OF David DeJesus (Keeping) – The Jesus is just an ordinary player whose .384 obp in 2010 was about 25 points above his career average, making it likely that the only category he was truly helping before he got injured last year will just be average. No power, no speed, no upside.
X-Factor: 2B/OF Sean Rodriguez (Billy) – Last year’s spring training star had some value last year, but not a lot, due mostly to playing time issues. He’s playing this year and has 20/20 upside. OBP will never good, but a good bench player.
Round 24
Best: SS Yunel Escobar (Montezumas) – Wasn’t going to go for a SS here with the reliable Jeter already on my roster, but couldn’t pass up the number two hitter in a stacked lineup in Toronto. I ranked him ninth among SS and was more than happy to scoop him up here.
Runner (Best): SP Jake Westbrook (Moose) – I expect Westbrook to be very solid this year and to get more than 20 QS. To find that in the last round is a great feat.
Worst: C Miguel Olivio (Anal) – The only thing worse than rostering one catcher that should be on the waiver wire is having two. Olivio’s appeal quickly disappeared as soon as he signed in Seattle (Milton Bradley was batting third on opening day), with that lineup and that park.
Runner (Grumpy): RP Brandon Webb (Grumpy) – Tough to know Casten for taking a shot here, but I just don’t think BWebb will play much this year. I had him ranked pretty high in the winter, but the news about his progress never got better. There’s better use of your DL slot.
X-Factor: RP Jordan Walden (Angry) – If Rodney struggles out of the gate, Walden is the likely choice to take on all those Angel save opportunities. And he’s worth holding onto and playing because of his high K rate.
Thursday, March 24, 2011
Saturday, February 19, 2011
2011 League Vote & other info
What's up MFers? The season is approaching quickly and we need to hold our traditional vote on the issues that have come up. Instead of sending our an email like a typically would, I have embedded the questions on the right side of the blog. This will track the results automatically. You will also notice that you only have until 3/15 to get your vote in, and then the voting will close down. Let me know if there are any other questions that should be added.
As of now we have March 28th at 7:30 pm as the online draft. Let me know if you have any iaaues with that date and time ASAP.
We will be exapnding to 14 teams this year, and I am working on having the 2 new owners added. More to come.
It is required that all fantasy baseball blogs post the George Brett Shit Himself Remix once per year. We are filling the quota today, but we will be posting it many time throughout the season, because this video never gets old.
As of now we have March 28th at 7:30 pm as the online draft. Let me know if you have any iaaues with that date and time ASAP.
We will be exapnding to 14 teams this year, and I am working on having the 2 new owners added. More to come.
It is required that all fantasy baseball blogs post the George Brett Shit Himself Remix once per year. We are filling the quota today, but we will be posting it many time throughout the season, because this video never gets old.
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