Week 8 Real Rankings

NOTES

Dominant week by Montezuma's, which posts the highest rank of the season at 2.4. Unfortunately, it resulted in quite the injustice in the Actual Standings as my opponent, Stroman, had the third best Real Ranking but only managed 1 win.

In a similar vein, One Nut and Donkey both deserved better than 5 and 4 wins, respectively, as they were 2nd and 4th in the Real Rankings but happened to be playing eachother. It was a big week for One Nut, which badly needed some sign of hope to stay in this thing. With Price on the mend, maybe Jason's team is poised to make a run.

The matchup of the week between then second place Angry and third place LOC fizzled into a bit of a suckfest with the teams finishing 12th and 14th in the Real Rankings for the week.  Though on a bit of a downturn lately, Kyle's Pirates face a rising Revenge squad that is finally playing up to its place in the actual standings.

After a quick start, LOC has had a tough past three weeks with outputs of 7.8, 9.0, and 9.3. The additions of Lester and CMart may put a halt to that streak

The pace of pickups has lowered a bit since the league voted not to expand the transaction limit. Now, only five teams are on pace to exceed the limit - LOC, Montezumas, Thor, Stroman, and Brokeback.

Every now and then, it's good to check on who is hot at the moment. Here is the best Real Ranking over the past four weeks.

1 Anal Hershiser         5.1
2 Ring of Fire         5.4
3 Montezuma's            5.7
4 Thor's Hammered 6.1
5 Donkey Punchers 6.5
6 Stroman my CO 6.8
7 Sexual Napalm   6.9
8 Livin' on a Correa 7.6
9 Brokeback               7.6
10 One Nut Wonders 8.2
11 The Angry Pirates 8.3
12 Keep Off Groin 8.4
13 Cowhide Joyride 8.4
14 Moose is Loose! 8.4

Trade Reviews

Living on Correa receives:
SP Jon Lester CHC
SP Carlos Martinez STL
19th rounder

Brokeback receives:
OF AJ Pollock ARI
11th rounder


The first big trade of the year as Watson is the first to call it quits. He didn't wait long after the announcement to deal away his two biggest chips, and I think he came up a bit short. Given the need for reliable starting pitching and the dearth of available options, Lester and Martinez should've each brought in at least 20 rounds and perhaps an interesting (if not surefire) keeper option -- or the two of them should've brought in an elite keeper, which Pollock is not in my opinion. The fact that the first team to start selling the past two seasons has traded for Pollock early on says a lot about his durability. His 162-game average is 93/15/58/29/.346, which is great, certainly a top-30 keeper, but not equivalent to 40-50 rounds. And that's without factoring in that he's only come close to a 162-game season once in 5+ seasons -- and he won't get there this season. That 157-game 2015 season was superb (111/20/76/39/.367), but it was also his age 27 season.  Pollock won't be contributing to Watson's team until he turns 30 years old and speed doesn't age well, particularly on players.

Garret Richards, a much less accomplished SP, brought in 15 rounds straight up early last season. Price and Kennedy brought in Pollock and 12 rounds (11 for 23) last year, which is a great comp - less picks and a significantly worse pair of pitchers (Price was in the midst of a terrible start to thes season when dealt).

For Chad, this is just what the doctor ordered. His offense has been clicking all season even after Pollock got hurt, but his pitching has been dreadful at times, despite some quality surprises like Senzatela, Miranda, and Hahn. Adding CMart and Lester to fit in between Strasburg and Bundy makes this a championship-caliber roster that should be frightening for the rest of the league. The new guy has wasted no time making a splash.

So, in short, while I like Pollock and acknowledge Watson received the highest pick he could at the moment, I really think  he could've received the equivalent of Pollock + 8 rounds for one of those SPs, leaving him at least 20 rounds short of what the market should bear at this point in the season. And I love the trade for Chad, who needed a shot in the arm and got one in a big way.

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Livin on Correa recieves:
RP Brad Bach BAL
20th rounder

Brokeback recieves:
16th rounder

I'm not going to spend much time breaking this down, but basically I think this is what every quality RP should go for in a S+H league. Bach has been one of the best, but his impact is limited and this is the right amount of rounds in the right part of the draft to receive for him.

Week 7 Real Rankings

NOTES

After an up and down start, Anal has put together two strong weeks in a row and vaulted to first place in the actual standings. Justin's squad may be onto something with 3.8 and 2.4 rankings in Pitching and 5.8 and 3.2 in Hitting.  Anal is tied in first with the Angry Pirates, who is enjoying a much nicer season this year (though not quite as good if you look at the Real Rankings).

LOC had a second tough week in a row, but this time it was Chad's hitting that let him down - finishing the week at 11.8 in hitting categories.

What can you say about Watson and the Moundmen? He had the third best week by Real Ranking and beat his opponent in Real Ranking (4.8 vs. 5.5 for Ring), yet he still lost the week, only gaining 4 wins for his efforts. Now, he had some legit poor returns in weeks 4 and 6, but as the RR show, he deserves much placement than 12th in the actual standings. Statistics don't believe in luck, so expect a rebound to at least a playoff team (pending health). That said, there's significant imbalance with the best pitching and 10th best hitting.

On that note, at the one-third mark of the season, not a bad time to look at those pitch and hit rankings and try to address any imbalances. I can post the week to week RRs if it would be helpful.

Angry and LOC battle this week, in what should be a big matchup.

Prospect season is upon us! Super 2 status will no longer hold back some of the games best young players in the next couple weeks. It's always and interesting race to the wire as the youngins come up or it's a time of great anticipation for teams who held players in NA slots all season. It's typically boom or bust and we've already seen some booms in early returns with Gallo (Moose) (Bellinger (LOC), Berrios (Montezumas), Happ (Montezumas), and Urias (One Nut).  Meanwhile, one can salivate over some of last year's NAs that turned in to keepers:  Benintendi, GSanchez, Turner, Buxton, Bregman, and WContreras.

Early season roster decisions are always difficult and some come back and bite you big time -- while other can change your fortunes for the season.  Here's a few of the good, the bad, and the ugly from the junk pile:

- OF Mike Conforto NYM (15th overall): drafted by Thor in the 18th, droped April 6. Picked up an thoroughly enjoyed by Anal since April 17th. Looks like a keeper.
- 1B Mark Reynolds COL (9th overall): undrafted, picked up by Thor (so don't feel too bad about Conforto) on April 6. Looking good for regular ABs provided production continues to be at least decent.
- 3B Joey Gallo TEX (20th overall): drafted by Thor in the 22nd, then dropped April 9. Added by Moose April 12th. Well, maybe Thor should feel bad... Fortunate for the rest of us since Thor is one of the top teams even without Gallo and Conforto. Maybe coming back to Earth here soon, even if the HRs never do.
- 1B Ryan Zimmerman WAS (11th overall):  undrafted but scooped up by LOC on April 8. Best bounceback story of the season, and no reason it can't continue at age 32 with health.
- OF Aaron Judge NYY (5th overall): drafted in the 19th by Moose. Never dropped or anything, but I  only mention it because I think Brian owes Matt Sawyer a hug for drafting him. The season maybe going south for the Meese, but this is a bright spot and seems like a keeper for years to come.
- 3B Eugenio Saurez CIN (32nd overall): undrafted, picked up by Moose on April 2nd. Between Gallo, Judge, and Saurez, you'd think Brian wouldn't still be in the basement.
- OF Avisail Garcia CHW (39th):  undrafted, added by Anal on April 10th. Still shocked to see what we're seeing and a bit skeptical, but he's always had power, so...
- OF Aaron Altherr PHI (53rd overall):  undrafted and in the minors to start the season. Brokeback picked him up on April 26th and he's been incredible ever since.
- 1B/OF Cody Bellinger LAD (89th overall): drafted by LOC in the 19th. Only mentioning because its so rare an NA actually comes up and contributes right away. This guy looks like a star.
- RP Greg Holland COL (22nd overall): undrafted, picked up by Anal April 4th. This is why waiting for RPs makes sense. Who would've though the saves leader (by far) wouldn't even be on a roster after the draft?
- SP Jason Vargas KC (47th overall):  undrafted, added by Ring on April 14th. One of the season's great rebound stories. Vargas is burying his changeup in the strikezone and producing like an ace.
- SP Alex Wood LAD (50th overall): drafted by Cowhide in the 19th, dropped three days after the draft, picked up by Donkey on April 20, which is roughly the last time he let up an earned run.
- SP Derek Holland CHW (76th overall): undrafted, added by Thor on April 24th. This seems as improbably as any of these, but he hasn't digressed. Another big pickup.

Week 6 Real Rankings

NOTES

We have a new number one, at least in the Real Rankings, with Dagan taking over the top spot from Chad, who’s offensive prowess has been mitigated by some pitching problems.  Dagan was the top team last week but only managed 5 wins in a tough matchup against Montezumas, which nearly split the week before late game heroics on Sunday.  Clearly though, Ring is the top team in the league with the top pitching and second best hitting.

This is the latest we’ve gone into the season without an active seller in three years.  In 2016, Kyle started dealing on May 3^rd. In 2015, Gibby started April 28^th. But keep in mind, in both seasons they were the only dedicated seller for a couple months, so they are both outliers. And, in reality, Jason and Brian are only 10 and 8.5 games out of a playoff spot, respectively, with 15 weeks and 150 “games” to go. A lot can change.

I think with both Gibby and Kyle's teams, it was a mixture of injuries and underperformance from keepers and/or early picks that convinced them it was time to deal. Being the only seller in a starved market has a number of advantages and there’s different approaches to take. With both Kyle and Gibby, they managed to identify keepers they wanted and deal for them, while also picking up hot players and dealing them off as well.

The conclusion of this week will represent the one-third mark for the season – a good opportunity to take a hard look at the roster and seek trade partners or make tough decisions on some of the early picks that haven’t worked out. My leash was gone a long time ago.

Thankfully, the league decided to add a DL spot this year. There are currently 44 injured players on roster, which averages out to 3.1 per team! If you don’t count Brokeback, who remarkably has no DLed players at the moment, the number spikes to 3.4 per team.  While it’s nice the player isn’t gone as long, there doesn’t seem to be any hesitation to put a player on the DL.

The season has actually had two trades so far this season, both including yours truly. I didn’t bother reviewing them because they weren’t particularly interesting. Justin and I swapped Grichuk and Shelby Miller – one got injured and one sucked, so that was a wash. And Shomphe and I swapped Eduardo Nunez for four late rounds, as Chris sought speed and position flexibility and I didn’t need either.

Teams sweeping categories this season:  Angry 6-0 in HRs, LOC 6-0 in RBIs, and Anal is 6-0 is S+H. Conversely, Montezumas is 0-6 in OBP, Moose is 0-6 in Ks, Angry in 0-5-1 in HR, Napalm is 0-4-2 in QS, and One Nut is 0-5-1 in QS.

A look at the new top 20 provides many obvious names and some that provide instant regret to those who ignored Thames productivity in Korea, Judge’s selectivity improvements last year, Zimmerman’s health and actual age (he’s only 32), Keuchel’s shoulder woes last year, Ervin’s propensity for hot streaks, Reynolds’ power potential in COL with adjustments from last year, Gallo’s potential to stick, Vargas’ past periods of outperformance when healthy, and Conforto’s talent vs. opportunity.

1.  OF Bryce Harper WAS, Thor

2.  1B Paul Goldshmidt ARI, Ring

3.  OF Mike Trout LAA, Montezumas

4.  1B Freddie Freeman ATL, Napalm

5.  1B Eric Thames MIL, Donkey

6.  SP Chris Sale BOS, Angry

7.  OF Aaron Judge NYY, Moose

8.  1B Ryan Zimmerman WAS, LOC

9.  1B Joey Votto CIN, Ring

10. 3B Miguel Sano MIN, Montezumas

11. 1B Mark Reynolds COL, Thor

12. SP Dallas Keuchel HOU, Donkey

13. SP Ervin Santana MIN, Thor

14. 3B Joey Gallo TEX, Moose

15. SP Max Scherzer WAS, Montezumas

16. SP Jason Vargas KC, Ring

17. OF Nelson Cruz SEA, One Nut

18. OF Michael Conforto NYM, Anal

19. SP Clayton Kershaw LAD, Brokeback

20. RP Craig Kimbrel BOS, Anal

Category Rankings

Week 5 Real Rankings

Week 4 Real Rankings

NOTES
- As I've repeated here before, it takes some time for the Real Rankings and Actual Standings to normalize, which is why you see teams like Brokeback ranked third in RR and 12th in the actual standings. Eventually these numbers get a lot closer. The rankings should provide teams like Watsons an element of frustration (about the lack of luck) as well as a feeling of peace that the team is still performing well on a relative basis.

-One thing that is consistent in both the RR and Actuals is the first and last place teams. The upstart Living on Correas are showing why we added Chad to the league, with the best hitting so far this year. However, the pitching is a weak spot with a 6.40/1.60 last week, with an average of 10.4 in the pitching categories vs. 2.8 for hitting.

- Jason, meanwhile, hasn't had much to be happy about thus far, sitting in last overall, last in hitting and 11th in pitching. Acquiring Dahl for Bellinger backfired a bit when Bellinger surprisingly made an appearance before Dahl. Unfortunately, much of this was self-inflicted with the drafting of injured or minor league players. Perhaps things will turnaround once they move up and get healthy. So far, the Brantley gamble looks like it is paying off.

- Glad we added the third DL spot this year. We may need a fourth considering how frequently teams are using the designation now. It may behoove us to look at adding to the transaction limit as well, but we can revisit that in the offseason. For now, several teams are already one-third of the way through their allotted 60 transactions for the regular season. (Trades do not count against this number btw).

- So far the most balanced team has been Thor, with fourth ranked hitting and fifth ranked pitching. However, Chris just took a hit with the injury to the team's namesake.

- Looking at all the pitcher injuries and the top SPs so far this season highlights how difficult it is to draft it effectively and why it is so often left for the later rounds by experts. Outside of Sale, Kershaw, and Carrasco, I'm pretty sure no one could claim to have confidence in the rest of the top 10 including Keuchel, Erv Santan, Paxton, Nova, Leake, Bundy, and Jason friggin Vargas.

- After a rough few weeks to start, Chris Shannon and the Punchers bounced back in a big way with a sub-3.0 RR for the week and a clean 10-0 sweep of Watson.

- Big matchup of the week will be LOC head to head with Dagan's ROF.

Top 20 overall players so far according to Yahoo:
1.  OF Bryce Harper WAS (Thor)
2.  1B Ryan Zimmerman WAS (LOC)
3.  1B Eric Thames MIL (Donkey)
4.  1B Paul Goldshmidt ARI (Ring)
5.  1B Freddie Freeman ATL (Napalm)
6.  SP Chris Sale BOS (Angry)
7.  OF Aaron Judge NYY (Moose)
8.  OF Mike Trout LAA (Montezumas)
9.  SP Dallas Keuchel HOU (Donkey)
10. SP Ervin Santana MIN (Thor)
11. 3B Miguel Sano MIN (Montezumas)
12. OF Khris Davis OAK (Moose)
13. OF Nelson Cruz SEA (One Nut)
14. OF Ryan Braun MIL (Anal)
15. SP James Paxton SEA (Angry)
16. SS Francisco Lindor CLE (Stroman)
17. OF Mitch Haniger SEA (LOC)
18. SP Ivan Nova PIT (KOG)
19. 1B Anthony Rizzo CHC (Brokeback)
20. 1B Joey Votto CIN (Ring)